The TSX surged more than 700 points as ceasefire signals out of the Middle East lifted energy and financials in early trading. Photo: iStock.

Market

TSX Rallies 700-Plus Points as Ceasefire Hope Returns to Markets

Apr 1, 2026 4 min The Market Desk

The Brief

TSX up 738 points to 32,673 as Trump's ceasefire claim triggers a broad risk-on rally, following Tuesday's 833-point surge.
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's president asked for a ceasefire, saying he will consider it only after the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and clear. Iran has not confirmed the claim.
Brent crude near $101 per barrel, down roughly 2% on de-escalation hope, though analysts warn a ceasefire does not equal supply restoration, which remains weeks away even in a best case.
Gold holding near $4,747 per ounce as safe-haven demand persists despite the equity rally, with some analysts seeing the dip as a buying opportunity.
The IEA warns April will be twice as severe as March for the global oil supply crunch, as pipeline-in-transit barrels that softened March's shock are now exhausted.

A Truth Social post from President Trump this morning sent North American equities higher for a second consecutive session. Trump claimed Iran's president had asked the United States for a ceasefire, saying he would consider the request only once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran has not confirmed the claim, and its foreign minister previously stated Tehran is seeking a full end to the war, not merely a ceasefire. Still, markets are trading the optionality: the TSX is up more than 700 points, extending Tuesday's 833-point advance, while the S&P 500 adds to yesterday's 2.45% gain.

The rally is real, but the underlying supply picture has not changed. Brent crude remains above $100/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz carries fewer than six ships per day versus the pre-war average of approximately 130. And the International Energy Agency warned this morning that April will see twice the oil supply loss experienced in March, as the buffer provided by in-transit tankers that set sail before the war began is now depleted.

The Anatomy Of A Relief Rally

Relief rallies in geopolitical crises follow a recognizable pattern. A credible signal of deescalation triggers rapid short-covering and risk-on positioning, often outpacing any fundamental improvement in the underlying situation. Tuesday's S&P 500 advance of 2.45% came after the Wall Street Journal reported Trump had told aides he was willing to end the military campaign without requiring full Hormuz reopening. Today's rally extends that move after Trump's own public statement appears to confirm the posture.

The breadth is noteworthy. Tuesday's S&P 500 move saw 441 of roughly 500 index constituents finish higher. Mega-cap technology names led: Nvidia gained approximately 5.6%, Alphabet and Microsoft advanced near 5%, and Amazon rose similarly. For Canadian investors with unhedged U.S. equity exposure, two consecutive days of strong gains represent a meaningful recovery from the March drawdown, during which the S&P 500 fell approximately 7% and the Nasdaq entered correction territory.

What The Ceasefire Claim Does And Does Not Mean For Oil

Neil Crosby, an analyst at Sparta, a market intelligence platform for oil traders, stated directly that a ceasefire does not equal supply restoration. Physical relief, even in a best case, is weeks to months away. Brent crude settled near $112 after a strike on a Kuwaiti tanker last Tuesday; it has pulled back toward $101 on today's rally. But the IEA's executive director Fatih Birol said this morning that April supply losses will be double those of March, because the in-transit barrels that cushioned markets through early April are now fully exhausted. With approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows disrupted through the Strait, and close to 500 million barrels of total liquids lost since the war began, the system has shifted from what Rystad Energy chief oil analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu calls "buffered to fragile."

The gap between paper prices and physical prices remains wide. Brent futures near $101 reflect optimistic ceasefire scenarios. Physical delivery prices, particularly for Asian buyers, remain sharply elevated. Goldman Sachs previously flagged an $18-per-barrel geopolitical risk premium embedded in futures at early-March levels; that premium has not disappeared, it has simply compressed somewhat on deescalation hope. Wells Fargo strategists warn that sustainable relief requires either a credible ceasefire or oil prices stabilizing below $90, where the inflationary impulse fades enough for the Federal Reserve to stay patient.

Canadian Market Implications

The TSX energy capped index is actually down 0.77% today, a notable divergence from the broader rally. Energy stocks had benefited most from elevated oil prices through March, and today's oil pullback is trimming those gains even as financials and technology drive the headline index higher. The S&P/TSX Financials Index is up 2.11%, reflecting a rotation away from crisis hedges and back toward rate-sensitive sectors as ceasefire hope modestly reduces the probability of a hawkish surprise from the Bank of Canada.

The CAD/USD sits near 0.7179, essentially flat. Oil-driven CAD strength has not materialized despite the equity rally, because the Hormuz closure and potential for prolonged disruption still dominate currency markets' view of the Canadian outlook. Clients with unhedged U.S. equity exposure are benefiting from two consecutive days of both equity gains and a roughly stable CAD, compounding the recovery effect.

SOURCES Yahoo Finance, BNN Bloomberg, CNN Business, CNBC, Al Jazeera, The Washington Post, 24/7 Wall St., Trading Economics, IEA (Fatih Birol), Rystad Energy (Paola Rodriguez-Masiu), Sparta (Neil Crosby), Wells Fargo Equity Strategy, Goldman Sachs, S&P Dow Jones Indices

Educational content only. This article is published for informational and professional development purposes. It does not constitute investment advice, financial planning advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Canadian advisors should apply their own professional judgment. Full disclaimer.

Advisor Toolkits — Apr 1, 2026

🛡️ Respond ▼

What They're Feeling

Clients who held through March's 7% S&P 500 drawdown are now seeing two consecutive days of meaningful recovery and may feel vindicated, relieved, or cautiously optimistic. Some will be tempted to call and claim the worst is over. Others who sold during March's slide will be feeling regret. A third group, still holding, will want to know whether to take profits or stay positioned. The dominant emotional shift today is from anxiety toward guarded hope, but the underlying fear of a prolonged war and energy shock has not fully dissipated.

What to Say

The last two days have been encouraging. Markets are reacting to the possibility that the Iran conflict could be winding down, and that relief is real. But here is what is important to understand: a ceasefire announcement and actual oil supply restoration are two very different things. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. The IEA is warning April's oil supply crunch will be worse than March's. So we are in a window where sentiment has improved but the fundamental risk has not fully resolved. For clients who held through the drawdown, this is the kind of recovery that disciplined portfolios are built to capture. For clients who sold, the lesson, as painful as it is, is exactly why we do not make portfolio changes based on crisis headlines. Tonight's presidential address could move markets after hours. Let's not overreact in either direction until we see how that lands.

Who's Affected

Benefiting today: clients with broad equity exposure, particularly U.S. equity, are seeing meaningful recovery across two sessions. Clients with technology-heavy portfolios benefited most from Tuesday's Nasdaq-led surge. Gold holders are seeing their positions remain elevated near $4,747 even as equities recover, confirming the diversification value. Mixed signals: clients with Canadian energy sector concentration are seeing their energy positions dip today even as the broader TSX rallies, as lower oil prices trim energy sector margins. The energy capped index is down 0.77% even while the composite is up 2.31%. Still at risk: clients who sold during March's drawdown have locked in losses and now face the classic reinvestment timing dilemma. Clients with upcoming large withdrawals or income needs in the next 30-60 days remain in the most precarious position if the rally reverses.

Action Checklist

Do not treat today's rally as confirmation the crisis is resolved, the supply disruption is ongoing. Monitor tonight's Trump address to the nation for any concrete ceasefire terms or escalation signals. Contact clients who sold in March proactively, acknowledge the recovery, and frame the forward path without judgment. Review clients with large upcoming withdrawal needs, the two-day rally may have partially restored liquidity buffers. Check energy sector weighting for clients asking about the TSX, explain the divergence between composite performance and energy capped index. Remind gold-holding clients that gold near $4,747 despite a risk-on equity rally confirms gold's portfolio insurance role. Document all conversations, including tone and any commitments made.

Follow-Up Email Template

Subject: Markets rallying on ceasefire hope, here is what it means

Following up on our conversation. Markets have staged a meaningful two-day recovery after President Trump claimed Iran's president asked for a ceasefire. The TSX is up over 700 points today and the S&P 500 continues to add to Tuesday's 2.45% gain. What's driving it: investor sentiment has shifted from crisis mode toward cautious hope that the Iran conflict may be nearing a diplomatic resolution. Tech stocks led the recovery, with broad participation across equity markets. What hasn't changed yet: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oil supply disruptions are ongoing, and the IEA warned today that April's crunch will be worse than March's. Physical oil delivery prices remain elevated even as futures have pulled back. A ceasefire does not equal immediate supply restoration. What this means for your portfolio: [customize]. The two-day recovery demonstrates why disciplined portfolios are built to stay invested through geopolitical shocks. Tonight's presidential address may move markets. We are watching closely and will be in touch if anything material changes.

Compliance note: All scripts, checklists, and templates are provided for educational and professional development purposes only. They do not constitute approved marketing materials. Advisors are responsible for ensuring all client communications comply with applicable CIRO rules, provincial securities legislation, and their firm's compliance policies. Customize all templates before use. HDQ accepts no liability for the use of these materials.

🎯 Prospect ▼

Client Profiles to Target

High-priority: DIY investors who sold in March and are now watching the recovery from the sidelines, questioning their decision, they have no one to help them think through re-entry timing. Clients of advisors who went quiet during the drawdown and are now equally quiet during the recovery, silence in both directions signals the advisor has no plan. Retirees in drawdown who felt the March decline acutely and are wondering whether their portfolio can sustain this level of volatility. Business owners and professionals who have been too distracted by the economic noise to revisit their investment plan. Medium-priority: anyone who expressed concern about the Iran war during casual conversation, today's two-day rally creates a natural conversation opener about the value of staying invested. Prospective clients sitting on excess cash, waiting for clarity, who have now missed two days of significant recovery.

Opening Line

Hi [Name], markets are up big for the second day in a row on Iran ceasefire news, and I wanted to reach out personally. A lot of people sat out March's drawdown and are now watching the recovery from the sidelines. I've had a few of those conversations this week and wanted to check in on how you're feeling about where things stand with your investments.

Value Proposition

The Iran war created a textbook stress test for disciplined investing. Clients who held steady through March's 7% S&P 500 decline are recovering well across two sessions. Clients who sold are now facing the hardest decision in investing: when to get back in. This is precisely the situation where professional guidance has the highest value. Anyone managing their own portfolio through this moment is navigating two acute behavioral risks simultaneously, the temptation to sell during the drawdown and the temptation to wait for certainty before re-entering, both of which destroy long-term returns.

Discovery Questions

How did you handle the last few weeks of market volatility? Did you make any changes to your investments? When markets dropped in March, did you have a clear plan for what to do, or were you figuring it out in real time? With the rally today, are you feeling confident in your positioning, or uncertain about whether to stay, add, or wait? Do you have someone you consult when the situation feels as uncertain as it has over the last month? How much of your portfolio is in equities versus fixed income? Have you thought about whether that mix still fits where you are in life? If the war drags on another month and markets pull back again, do you have a plan you'd feel confident executing?

Prospecting Email Template

Subject: TSX up 700 points, second day in a row: where do you stand?

Markets have staged a sharp two-day rally on news that Iran may have requested a ceasefire with the U.S. The TSX is up more than 700 points today following Tuesday's 833-point surge, and the S&P 500 is adding to a 2.45% gain from yesterday. If you held through March's volatility, this recovery is working as it should. If you made changes during the drawdown, you may be facing a different set of decisions right now. Either way, the next few weeks are likely to be volatile. Tonight's presidential address could move markets, the oil supply situation remains unresolved, and the Bank of Canada's next rate decision is April 29. If you'd find it useful to talk through where your portfolio stands heading into this next phase, I'm happy to set aside 20 minutes this week. No obligation.

Compliance note: Prospecting communications are subject to CIRO rules on client communications and applicable anti-spam legislation (CASL). Ensure you have appropriate consent before sending unsolicited communications. All templates must be reviewed and approved by your firm's compliance department before use. HDQ accepts no liability for the use of these materials.