HDQ
FRANÇAIS Waiting List
Vol. 1  ·  No. 700
AllMarketGeopoliticalEconomyTax & WealthBehaviouralDaily Thread

Today's Briefing

Wall Street Is at Records and the TSX Is Not: The Canadian Index Is Down 3.16% Since August 26 While the Nasdaq Is Up 5.62%
Market
Wall Street Is at Records and the TSX Is Not: The Canadian Index Is Down 3.16% Since August 26 While the Nasdaq Is Up 5.62%
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records Tuesday while the TSX sits 3.5% below its record close, a gap that opened as Canadian yields rose ahead of the October 28 Bank of Canada decision.
Oct 7, 2026 5 min Read →
entity:tsxentity:sp500entity:nasdaqentity:vixentity:brent
Hormuz Transits Are Down 95% From Their Pre-War Pace and Canada Is Collecting the Premium: June Showed How Fast It Can Reverse
Geopolitical
Hormuz Transits Are Down 95% From Their Pre-War Pace and Canada Is Collecting the Premium: June Showed How Fast It Can Reverse
Canada August trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion as energy export prices rose, but the June partial reopening cut energy exports 10% and took Brent toward $72, a 28% fall from today.
Oct 7 6 min Read →
The Bond Market Has Already Raised Rates: Canada Five-Year Yield Sits 96 Basis Points Above Its Pre-War Level With the Bank of Canada Still at 2.25%
Economy
The Bond Market Has Already Raised Rates: Canada Five-Year Yield Sits 96 Basis Points Above Its Pre-War Level With the Bank of Canada Still at 2.25%
The two-year yield is 101 basis points over the overnight rate, headline CPI is 3.0% against core readings of 1.9% and 2.0%, and three dates between October 9 and October 28 decide whether the central bank follows.
Oct 7 6 min Read →
Recent News
Tax & Wealth Six Straight Quarters at 3%: Why the October T-Bill Average Decides the Q1 2027 Prescribed Rate
A prescribed rate loan made before December 31 locks in 3% for its life, and the 2.40% bill yield on October 6 leaves the next reset needing a jump of more than 60 basis points to change anything.
Oct 7 5 min
Behavioural Brent Moved 8.6% in One Session and the VIX Rose 3.2%: How Habituation Sets the Price of Fear
Three oil swings larger than 7% since September 10 produced smaller VIX moves than the first one. Habituation, not calm, may explain the gap between a closed strait and a 15.01 volatility reading.
Oct 7 5 min
Daily Thread Brent Is 0.6% Below Its September Average and WTI Is 6.5% Below, So Canadian Producers Have Absorbed the Oil Decline While the Inflation Risk Behind October 28 Has Barely Moved
A G7 reserve release trimmed both benchmarks by under 2% in early Tuesday trading and left the Brent-WTI gap at $10.90.
Oct 6 4 min
Market TSX Falls 0.44% to 35,347.35 as Energy and Banks Drag While the Nasdaq Gains 1.05% and the U.S. 10-Year Yield Hits 5.315%
The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.36% below its August 25 close and the U.S. indexes rose on Monday. Concentration in energy and banks explains much of the gap.
Oct 6 5 min
Geopolitical Brent Holds $100 While WTI Sits $11 Lower, and Canadian Producers Are Collecting Only Part of the Hormuz Premium
Brent closed at $100.32 on October 5 and WTI at $89.22. Analysts tie the widening gap to talk of a U.S. diesel export ban, which matters because Canadian producers measure results against WTI.
Oct 6 6 min
Economy Canadian Core Inflation Is 1.9% and Employment Is Shrinking, Yet Markets Price a 41% to 44% Chance of a Bank of Canada Hike on October 28
An oil-driven headline rate of 3.0% has pulled the Bank of Canada toward tightening just as the labour market weakens. Bond yields near 4% are already doing part of the work.
Oct 6 7 min
Tax & Wealth The January 1 CPP Cut Is Worth $133 a Year to a $70,000 Employee and $266 to the Self-Employed. Where That Money Goes Is the Planning Question
The base contribution rate falls to 9.5% in 87 days, the Chief Actuary has cleared it, and the long-run asset cost is real. The planning window is TFSA room, the March 1 RRSP deadline and the new five-year HBP grace period.
Oct 6 6 min
Behavioural Oil Has Moved 2% in a Day 13 Times Since September 9. The TSX Has Not Done It Once, and the Quiet 3.9% Slide Is the Harder Behavioural Test
Loss aversion, the availability heuristic and myopic loss aversion all point at the same problem: a slow drift below a remembered high does more behavioural damage than a headline.
Oct 6 6 min
Daily Thread The Canadian Two-Year Yield Already Equals the Most Hawkish Bank Forecast for the 2027 Overnight Rate, and the TSX Trails a Flat S&P 500
Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.
Oct 5 4 min
View archive →

Membership is permanently capped. Admitted by nomination only. Waiting list →