HDQ Economy Desk

Economy Desk

The Bank of Canada Has Not Moved Its Rate Since April. Borrowing Costs Have Moved Anyway.

The BoC's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings, but the Government of Canada 10-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in the same window, driven by a US bond market the Bank of Canada does not control.

Aug 21, 2026 6 min Read →

Economy

Canada's Inflation Print Just Complicated the Bank of Canada's September Calculus, and the Fed Isn't Making It Easier

Headline CPI accelerated to 3.0 percent in July while core inflation barely moved, and the Federal Reserve's July minutes showed hawkish sentiment running deeper than the three known dissents.

Aug 20 6 min Read →

Economy

Canada's Inflation Rose to 3.0 Percent. The Bank of Canada Is Still More Likely to Cut Than Hike.

A hot GDP print, a 3.0 percent headline number and a Fed watching Treasury yields hit 19 year highs all land on Macklem's desk before September 2.

Aug 19 7 min Read →

Recent — Economy

Economy July's Inflation Number Points to a Hold. The Bond Market Might Not Cooperate

Core inflation has been flat for three months. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 is the number that actually moves Canadian mortgage rates.

Aug 18 6 min

Economy The BoC Meets Five Days After Warsh Speaks and Two Weeks Before the Fed Decides

The Bank of Canada's September 2 decision is likely a formality. The window on either side of it, running through Jackson Hole and the Fed's own September 16 meeting, is where Canadian bond yields are actually being set.

Aug 17 5 min

Economy The Bank of Canada Held. The Bond Market Didn't Wait.

Canada's economy is running hotter than the Bank's own forecast while US inflation cools, and Government of Canada yields are already pricing the difference.

Aug 14 6 min

Economy Canada's Economy Is Outrunning the Bank of Canada's Own Forecast

The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings while GDP and employment blow past its own projections. In line US inflation on Wednesday just took away one reason to keep waiting.

Aug 13 6 min

Economy Canadian Bond Yields Just Hit a 26-Month High. Today's US Inflation Report Decides What Happens Next.

The Government of Canada 10-year yield climbed to 3.75% even though the Bank of Canada has not moved its policy rate since October. The US July CPI report, due at 8:30am ET, is the print that resolves which economic signal wins.

Aug 12 6 min

Economy Canada's 10-Year Yield Hits a May High as Canadian and US Data Pull in Opposite Directions

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a weak US one are colliding in the bond market, with Wednesday's US inflation print next to referee.

Aug 11 6 min

Economy The Fed's Three Dissenters Wanted a Hike. Canada's Data Made Their Case, America's Broke It.

Canada's Q2 GDP and jobs beat argue for BoC firmness. The same morning's US payrolls miss cut September Fed hike odds by half. Same week, opposite direction.

Aug 10 6 min

Economy Canada Added 75,100 Jobs, the US Lost 23,000, and the Gap Between the BoC and the Fed Has Not Moved Since December

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a shock US miss landed the same morning, sharpening the policy debate at both central banks without closing the 137 basis point gap between them.

Aug 7 6 min

Economy Canada's Trade Surplus Widened to $3.9 Billion in June, the Largest in Over Four Years

Record export volumes and a weaker loonie both pushed the number higher. The distinction between the two matters for what the data tells the Bank of Canada ahead of its September 2 decision.

Aug 6 6 min

View full Economy archive →