HDQ Behavioural Desk

Behavioural Desk

The Fear Gauge Has Calmed, but Investors Are Still Measuring From August 25

The VIX sits near the quiet end of its yearly range, yet the TSX closed October 8 at 4.9% below its August high. Research on reference points explains why the second number drives behaviour.

Oct 9, 2026 6 min Read →

Behavioural

Bonds Lost Ground for Eleven Sessions. A 1.7% TSX Drop Is the Day It Starts to Feel Real

The 30-year Treasury yield rose 38 basis points from September 22 to October 7, the slowest kind of loss for investors to register. Behavioural research explains why the TSX decline on October 7 may be the day many Canadian clients start paying attention.

Oct 8 6 min Read →

Behavioural

Brent Moved 8.6% in One Session and the VIX Rose 3.2%: How Habituation Sets the Price of Fear

Three oil swings larger than 7% since September 10 produced smaller VIX moves than the first one. Habituation, not calm, may explain the gap between a closed strait and a 15.01 volatility reading.

Oct 7 5 min Read →

Recent — Behavioural

Behavioural Oil Has Moved 2% in a Day 13 Times Since September 9. The TSX Has Not Done It Once, and the Quiet 3.9% Slide Is the Harder Behavioural Test

Loss aversion, the availability heuristic and myopic loss aversion all point at the same problem: a slow drift below a remembered high does more behavioural damage than a headline.

Oct 6 6 min

Behavioural Nine Straight Weeks of Retail Selling Into a Near-Record Market Is the Disposition Effect at Work

Retail clients have been net sellers of U.S. equities for nine weeks while bond losses sit unrealized, a split behavioural finance described in 1985.

Oct 5 6 min

Behavioural Investors Are Bracing for October While the Strain Sits in the Bond Market

The VIX closed at 16.39, 5.4 points below its 25-year October average, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002.

Oct 2 5 min

Behavioural Down 2.85% for the Month, Up 1.09% for the Quarter: Why Myopic Loss Aversion Picks the Worse Number

The TSX Composite closed September 2.85% below its August 31 level and 1.09% above its June 30 level, the ninth straight quarterly gain. Behavioural research explains why the shorter window tends to win the emotional argument.

Oct 1 5 min

Behavioural Investors Are Dropping Hedges and Buying Upside Calls as the 10-Year Yield Reaches a 2007 High

Protection against a stock decline is near a one-year low while Treasury yields sit at a two-decade high, a pairing that probability weighting and the availability heuristic help explain.

Sep 30 6 min

Behavioural Gold Fell as the War Escalated, and the Safe-Haven Label Is Now Being Tested

Gold dropped 3.5% on a day when Middle East headlines worsened, and the gap between the safe-haven label and the price is a live test of mental accounting and loss aversion.

Sep 29 6 min

Behavioural The Widening Gap Between Consumer Sentiment and TSX Reality

University of Michigan sentiment fell to a four-month low in September while the TSX Composite gained 19 percent over the same year, a divergence behavioural finance traces to which information stays most vivid in memory.

Sep 28 4 min

Behavioural The Availability Heuristic Behind a Whipsaw Week on the TSX

Wednesday brought the sharpest single session decline in three months. The pattern behind client anxiety this week has a name, and it is not the index level.

Sep 25 5 min

Behavioural Why a Calm VIX Still Means Anxious Clients This Week

The volatility index closed near 15 on Wednesday even as the TSX reversed a 326 point Tuesday gain into a 402 point drop, and loss aversion research explains why the quiet headline number is the wrong signal for what clients are feeling.

Sep 24 6 min

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