Oil Shock Portfolio Review: What to Check in Your TFSA and RRSP Right Now

A sustained oil price shock above $100 changes the risk profile of balanced portfolios held inside TFSAs and RRSPs, particularly for clients approaching withdrawal. Photo: iStock.

Tax & Wealth

Oil Shock Portfolio Review: What to Check in Your TFSA and RRSP Right Now

Apr 2, 2026 4 min The Tax & Wealth Desk

The Brief

Five weeks of sustained oil shock changes the planning calculus. What looked like a short-term geopolitical spike in late February now has structural characteristics that warrant a deliberate account-level review.
Energy weighting inside TFSAs and RRSPs deserves a look. Canadian equity ETFs are heavily weighted to energy, and clients who hold broad TSX exposure have significant oil price sensitivity they may not be aware of.
Fixed income duration is more exposed than it was in January. The 5-year GoC bond yield has risen from 2.7% to 3.2% this month, creating mark-to-market pressure on longer-duration bond holdings.
Currency exposure inside registered accounts matters now. The CAD/USD relationship has behaved unusually during this conflict, and clients with unhedged U.S. equity exposure inside their RRSP have a currency dimension worth understanding.
The planning question on U.S. and global equity exposure inside registered accounts has sharpened: how much is appropriate when Canadian energy is outperforming and the U.S. dollar is behaving as a safe haven.

The Iran war is now in its fifth week and Brent crude is above $108/barrel with the IEA warning the supply crunch will intensify through April. At this duration and magnitude, the oil shock is no longer a short-term event to ride out passively. It has become a structural factor that changes the relative performance of asset classes, sectors, and currencies in ways that are relevant to how registered accounts are positioned. A deliberate account-level review, not a reactive trade, is the appropriate response.

The review does not need to be complex. It requires answering four questions for each account: what is the energy weighting, what is the fixed income duration, what is the currency exposure, and does the overall allocation still match the client's time horizon and risk tolerance given what has changed since January.

Energy Weighting: More Than Most Clients Realize

Canadian equity ETFs tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index carry energy weightings that typically range from 17% to 22% of the index. A client who holds a broad Canadian equity ETF as the core of their TFSA or RRSP holds meaningful oil price sensitivity without necessarily thinking of themselves as an energy investor. At $108/barrel Brent, that weighting has been a significant contributor to performance over the past five weeks. The question is whether the current energy weighting still reflects the client's intended risk profile, or whether the oil shock has caused passive drift into a higher-than-intended energy concentration.

The inverse question applies to clients who hold primarily U.S. equity ETFs inside their registered accounts. The S&P 500 has no structural energy benefit from the Hormuz disruption and is instead facing headwinds from the inflation and growth implications of sustained high oil. A client whose RRSP is concentrated in S&P 500 index funds has been on the wrong side of the energy trade for five weeks while their neighbour with a TSX-heavy TFSA outperformed.

Fixed Income Duration: The Quiet Risk

Bond yields have moved significantly without the Bank of Canada changing its policy rate. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield rose from approximately 2.7% to 3.2% this month, driven by the bond market's repricing of inflation risk from the oil shock. For clients holding longer-duration bond funds or ETFs inside their RRSP or TFSA, this yield movement creates negative mark-to-market returns on the fixed income sleeve even if no rate hike has occurred.

The mechanics are straightforward: bond prices move inversely to yields. A longer-duration bond fund falls more in price for a given yield increase than a shorter-duration one. A client in a 10-year+ duration bond ETF inside their RRSP has experienced a meaningful negative return on that holding this month despite holding what they consider a conservative asset. This is not a reason to panic-sell bond holdings. It is, however, a reason to review whether the duration profile of the fixed income sleeve still matches the client's time horizon and income needs.

Currency Exposure And The Rrsp Dimension

The Canadian dollar has behaved differently during this conflict than it typically does during oil price surges. Normally, CAD strengthens with rising oil prices because Canada is a net energy exporter. During this conflict, the safe-haven bid for the U.S. dollar has at times offset or reversed that relationship, leaving the CAD broadly flat against the USD even as oil surged. The behaviour reflects global risk-off positioning rather than Canadian economic fundamentals.

For clients with unhedged U.S. equity or global equity exposure inside their RRSP, this currency dynamic has added a layer of complexity. When the USD strengthens as a safe haven, unhedged U.S. equity positions in a Canadian-dollar account receive a translation benefit. Whether that currency exposure is intentional or incidental depends on the original portfolio design, and it is worth confirming in the current environment.

The Rrif Drawdown Consideration

For clients in registered retirement income fund drawdown, the oil shock adds a specific planning dimension. RRIF minimum withdrawal requirements are based on account value at January 1 of each year. A client whose RRIF was heavily weighted to energy at the January 1 valuation date has seen that sleeve appreciate significantly. The mandatory minimum withdrawal calculation for the current year was locked at January 1, so the energy appreciation accrues to the client's benefit without mechanically increasing this year's required minimum. But the asset mix question, whether to hold, trim, or rebalance the energy position, is now a live planning conversation for RRIF holders who have seen significant unrealized gains in the energy sleeve.

SOURCES Bank of Canada (March 18 rate statement), The Globe and Mail, True North Mortgage, NerdWallet Canada, Simply Wall St. (TSX Oil and Gas industry data), Trading Economics, Investing.com, Canada Revenue Agency (RRIF minimum withdrawal rules), Statistics Canada

Educational content only. This article is published for informational and professional development purposes. It does not constitute investment advice, financial planning advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Canadian advisors should apply their own professional judgment. Full disclaimer.

Advisor Toolkits — Apr 2, 2026

🛡️ Respond ▼

What They're Feeling

Clients in accumulation are largely focused on the headline market numbers and may not be thinking about account-level positioning. Clients in or near drawdown are more attuned to what is happening inside their registered accounts specifically, and some are confused about why their "safe" bond holdings are showing losses on their statements. Clients who have seen energy positions surge are experiencing the pleasant discomfort of significant unrealized gains and are unsure whether to act.

What to Say

"Now is actually a good time to do a quick account-level check, not because something is wrong, but because the oil shock has changed the relative performance of asset classes enough that it is worth confirming your positioning still makes sense. Specifically, I want to look at three things with you: how much energy exposure you have inside your registered accounts, whether your bond holdings have been affected by the yield movement this month, and what your currency exposure looks like inside your RRSP if you hold U.S. or global equity funds. None of these require us to make a change today. But they are the right questions to be asking at five weeks into this conflict."

Who's Affected

High impact: RRIF holders with significant energy exposure navigating unrealized gains against mandatory withdrawal requirements. Clients holding longer-duration bond funds inside registered accounts seeing unexpected negative returns. Clients approaching retirement making final asset mix decisions with an oil-shock overlay they did not plan for. Medium impact: TFSA and RRSP accumulators with broad Canadian equity ETF exposure who may be underweighting the energy sensitivity of their passive holdings. Clients with U.S. equity ETFs inside their RRSP who have an unexamined currency overlay. Lower immediate impact: Young accumulators with long time horizons and no near-term liquidity needs.

Action Checklist

Pull a client list segmented by account type: RRIF holders first, then clients within 5 years of retirement, then accumulators

For each RRIF client, confirm energy weighting and note whether the position has created a planning conversation around rebalancing or drawdown sequencing

Review fixed income duration profiles inside registered accounts for clients who have expressed surprise at bond fund losses this month

Confirm currency hedging status of U.S. equity ETF holdings inside RRSPs for clients with significant U.S. exposure

Do not execute rebalancing trades inside registered accounts today, last session before a four-day weekend is a poor time for discretionary changes

Schedule account review calls for the week of April 6, after the jobs report has been absorbed and markets have reopened

Follow-Up Email Template

Subject: A few things worth checking in your registered accounts

With five weeks of sustained oil shock now behind us, I wanted to flag a few account-level items that are worth reviewing together. Energy weighting: if you hold broad Canadian equity ETFs inside your TFSA or RRSP, you have more energy price sensitivity than you may realize. The TSX energy sector is up significantly this year, which has been positive, but it is worth confirming whether the current weighting still matches your intentions. Fixed income: bond yields have risen this month, which creates mark-to-market pressure on longer-duration bond fund holdings inside registered accounts. If your fixed income sleeve has shown an unexpected loss on your statement, this is the likely explanation. Currency in your RRSP: if you hold U.S. or global equity ETFs inside your RRSP, there is a currency overlay on your returns that may be partially offsetting equity market losses. I am planning to reach out to clients for brief account reviews the week of April 6, once markets reopen after the long weekend.

Compliance note: All scripts, checklists, and templates are provided for educational and professional development purposes only. They do not constitute approved marketing materials. Advisors are responsible for ensuring all client communications comply with applicable CIRO rules, provincial securities legislation, and their firm's compliance policies. Customize all templates before use. HDQ accepts no liability for the use of these materials.

🎯 Prospect ▼

Client Profiles to Target

High-priority: Self-directed RRSP and TFSA investors managing their own accounts without a clear framework for reviewing positioning during a structural market shift. Clients approaching retirement within five years who have not done a formal account-level review since before the Iran war. RRIF holders who are surprised by the combination of energy gains and bond losses on the same statement. Medium-priority: Anyone who holds both Canadian and U.S. equity ETFs inside registered accounts and has not had a conversation about how those interact with currency movements.

Opening Line

"Hi [Name], I have been reaching out to people who manage their own registered accounts because there are a few specific things inside TFSAs and RRSPs that look different right now than they did in January. Energy weighting, bond duration, and currency exposure have all shifted in ways that are worth a quick check. It takes about 20 minutes to go through and it gives you a clear picture of where you stand. Would that be useful?"

Value Proposition

Registered account reviews are the most concrete and practical form of financial planning value that an advisor can offer during a volatile period. Unlike market commentary, which is freely available everywhere, an account-level review anchored to a specific client's holdings, time horizon, and income needs is something only an advisor with access to the full picture can deliver. The oil shock has created enough divergence between asset classes and geographies that a review completed today will look materially different from one done in January.

Discovery Questions

When did you last do a deliberate review of the asset mix inside your RRSP and TFSA specifically, not just check the balance?
Do you know what percentage of your Canadian equity holdings are in the energy sector right now, and whether that has changed since the oil shock began?
Have you noticed anything unexpected on your statements this month, particularly in your bond or fixed income holdings?
If you hold U.S. equity funds inside your RRSP, do you know whether they are currency-hedged or unhedged, and what that means for your returns right now?
What would it take for you to feel confident that your registered accounts are positioned appropriately for where markets are today?

Prospecting Email Template

Subject: Five questions worth asking about your TFSA and RRSP right now

Five weeks into the Iran war, a few things inside registered accounts deserve a deliberate look. How much energy exposure do you have? If you hold a broad Canadian equity ETF, you likely have more oil price sensitivity than you realize. How long is your bond duration? Bond yields have risen this month without the Bank of Canada changing its rate. Longer-duration bond funds inside registered accounts have seen mark-to-market losses as a result. What is your currency exposure inside your RRSP? U.S. equity holdings inside a Canadian registered account carry a currency overlay. Does your asset mix still reflect your actual time horizon and risk tolerance? A lot has changed since January. If any of these questions prompted a "I'm not sure," that is worth a conversation. I would be happy to do a quick account review the week of April 6 once markets reopen.

Compliance note: Prospecting communications are subject to CIRO rules on client communications and applicable anti-spam legislation (CASL). Ensure you have appropriate consent before sending unsolicited communications. All templates must be reviewed and approved by your firm's compliance department before use. HDQ accepts no liability for the use of these materials.