The TSX fell 0.75% to close at 35,125 Wednesday, a decline driven by a collision of two forces that do not usually arrive together: a sharply falling oil price and a hawkish surprise from the US Federal Reserve. Energy and mining names absorbed the worst of it.
WTI crude fell to roughly $74.56 a barrel, its lowest level since early March, as markets digested confirmation of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alongside an International Energy Agency warning that global oil supply could outpace demand growth by 6 million barrels a day through 2027. Canadian Natural lost 1.4% and Suncor shed 2.5% on the session, with the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index falling 1.55% to 387.97, underperforming the broader composite by a wide margin.
Why the Energy Move Outpaced the Index
Canadian energy names carry direct earnings sensitivity to the WTI price in a way most of the rest of the TSX does not, which is why the sector sub-index move was more than double the composite's decline. The price has now fallen nearly 30% from its war-era peak, and the speed of the move, not just its size, is what is forcing energy stocks to reprice ahead of the next round of producer guidance.
Gold Miners Caught the Fed Crossfire
Barrick fell 2.6% and Wheaton Precious Metals lost 0.8% as gold prices tumbled nearly 2% Wednesday after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish message than markets expected at his first press conference. Nine of eighteen FOMC participants now project at least one 2026 rate hike, a sharp reversal from earlier projections, and the Fed stripped its policy statement of language referencing additional rate adjustments toward easing.
Gold's mechanism here is straightforward: a more hawkish rate path lifts US Treasury yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bullion. US two-year Treasury yields jumped roughly 14 basis points on the news, their highest level in over a year, and the US dollar rose about 1% on the day, putting pressure on gold-denominated Canadian mining equities from two directions at once.
Banks Held Up, Mostly
Financial stocks traded mixed rather than uniformly weak. TD Bank gained 1.2% while Brookfield fell 1.1%, a split that reflects company-specific positioning more than a sector-wide read on the Fed news. Banks are typically more insulated from a single hawkish surprise than commodity producers, since higher-for-longer rates can support net interest margins even as they create headline volatility elsewhere in the index.
The energy sub-index, on its own right-side scale, fell at a faster rate than the broader composite through the week, reflecting the sector's direct sensitivity to the WTI decline.
What to Watch Into Friday
The TSX Venture Composite fell 1.91% Wednesday and the TSX 60 Capped Index dropped 0.55%, both broadly consistent with the main composite's move. Volume on the day reached roughly 297.7 million shares, in line with the index's recent average, suggesting the decline reflects a genuine repricing rather than a thin, low-conviction session.