The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% Tuesday to close at 34,736, pressured by weakness in commodity-linked sectors as the same de-escalation story that calmed energy markets also unsettled gold. Thursday's session opens with a sharply different catalyst on the table: Micron's blowout earnings overnight have reignited the AI trade globally, and the read-through for Canadian tech names is significant.
What Actually Moved the TSX Tuesday
WTI crude settled at $70.34 a barrel, down nearly 4% and its first close below $70 since March 2, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued recovering. Brent fell 4.3% to $73.74, its lowest level since before the conflict began on February 28. Canadian Natural dropped 3.7%, Suncor fell 3.4%, and Cenovus lost 4.1% on the move.
Gold told a different but related story. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $4,040 an ounce, its sharpest single-session loss since June 10, as Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh overwhelmed the same de-escalation that was easing oil prices. Agnico Eagle lost 4.1%, Barrick shed 4.3%, and Wheaton Precious Metals retreated 2.9%. The mechanism is distinct from energy's: gold sold off on monetary policy fear even as the underlying geopolitical premium it had been carrying continued to unwind in the background.
Canadian technology stocks were the session's clear outperformer, rebounding from the previous session's global selloff. Shopify rose 6.1%, Constellation Software gained 2.8%, and Celestica climbed 3.3% ahead of Micron's earnings report after the bell.
The Overnight Catalyst That Changes Thursday's Setup
Micron reported fiscal third-quarter results that crushed expectations after Tuesday's close. Revenue more than quadrupled from $9.3 billion a year earlier to $41.46 billion, beating analyst estimates of roughly $36 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $25.11 against a $20.78 estimate. The company guided to approximately $50 billion in revenue for the current quarter.
The market reaction has been immediate and broad. Micron shares jumped roughly 18% in premarket trading. Qualcomm gained alongside it after raising its non-handset revenue guidance for fiscal 2029. Nasdaq 100 futures rose roughly 1.8 to 2.4% in early trading, with the rally extending into Asian markets, where South Korea's Kospi surged as much as 6%.
For the TSX, the direct read-through runs through Celestica, the Toronto-listed electronics manufacturer that supplies into the same AI infrastructure and data centre buildout driving Micron's demand surge. Celestica's 3.3% gain Tuesday came before Micron reported, positioning the stock to extend that move on Thursday's open rather than starting from a flat base. Constellation Software and Shopify, while less directly tied to AI memory demand specifically, both benefit from the same broad relief in technology sentiment.
The Inflation Print the Market Chose to Look Past
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge complicated the picture without derailing it. Core PCE inflation rose to 3.4% year over year in May, the highest reading since October 2023, while headline PCE hit a 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023. Both figures came in at or near consensus expectations rather than as a surprise.
In isolation, a 3.4% core reading would normally reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance and pressure equities further. That it has not done so this morning is a function of timing: Micron's results landed first and dominate sentiment heading into the open, while the in-line nature of the PCE print, however elevated in absolute terms, removed the risk of a hotter-than-expected surprise that could have forced a sharper repricing.
The combination leaves Thursday's session with two genuinely separate stories running in parallel: a reignited AI trade lifting technology broadly, and a Fed that has one more data point supporting its hawkish dot plot, with the market choosing, for today, to weight the former more heavily.
The TSX has tracked a volatile but directionally consistent path lower over the past several sessions as commodity weakness offset intermittent tech strength.
Volume bars are illustrative relative session activity, shaded red on down days. The shaded band marks the June 17 FOMC decision under Chair Kevin Warsh.
What to Watch at the Open
The first thirty minutes of trading will show whether Celestica and the broader Canadian tech complex extend Tuesday's gain on the Micron read-through, or whether the elevated core PCE print pulls rate-sensitive sectors back regardless of the chip rally. Energy and gold names are unlikely to reverse Tuesday's losses meaningfully unless oil or the U.S. dollar moves sharply, neither of which the early data suggests.