The TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,274.84, up 0.88%, or 308.17 points, closing in on its all-time high of 35,629.89 set earlier this year. Gold miners led the advance, with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Barrick each gaining roughly 2%, while Scotiabank and BMO each rose close to 1% as financials joined the rally. Energy added a more modest 0.6% even as WTI held steady near $69, still well off its pre-war levels of earlier this year.
The mechanism behind Friday's session is the same one driving gold and silver higher: a weaker than expected US jobs report knocked Federal Reserve rate hike odds down sharply, and Canadian gold producers, financials, and rate-sensitive names all benefited from the same repricing at once.
Why Gold Miners Did the Heavy Lifting, Not Energy
A composite index gaining 0.88% on a day when its largest weighted sector, energy, contributed only a fraction of that move tells you the story is happening elsewhere. Materials, which includes the gold and precious metals miners, added roughly 2.1% as spot gold climbed toward $4,182 an ounce on the softer US payrolls data. Financials, the TSX's single heaviest-weighted sector, added close to 1% as lower rate hike odds reduced pressure on bank funding costs and credit spreads.
Energy's more modest gain reflects a market that has already priced in the Strait of Hormuz recovery story. WTI near $69 is close to where it traded before the February conflict began, which means Canadian energy names are no longer getting a fresh tailwind from oil's normalization, they got that tailwind weeks ago. The stocks now need a new catalyst, and Friday's jobs data was not one for that particular sector.
Friday's gains were concentrated in gold miners and financials, not the energy sector that has dominated TSX headlines for months.
Materials and financials led Friday's TSX advance while energy lagged the composite, reflecting a rate-driven rotation rather than a fresh oil price catalyst.
South of the Border, a Historic First Half Closed With a Split Verdict
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday at 52,900.07, up 1.14%, capping its best first half in five years, a run that included Alphabet's addition to the index in late June. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.80% to 25,832.67 as the same rate repricing that lifted value and financial names weighed on richly valued technology stocks. The VIX fell 2.11% to 15.81, a level consistent with a market pricing in calm rather than a market bracing for a policy surprise.
For Canadian portfolios, the read-through is straightforward. The TSX's composition, heavier in financials, materials, and energy and lighter in technology, means a Fed-driven rotation away from growth stocks and toward rate-sensitive value plays tends to favour Canadian equities over their US counterparts, at least until the next data point changes the calculus. That next data point arrives July 15, when the Bank of Canada delivers its own rate decision.