Every desk this morning treated Wednesday's escalation as the live story. By Thursday's session most of it has already round tripped. The TSX has clawed back almost exactly what it lost. Oil has given back its spike. Gold has recovered. The Government of Canada 10 year yield has not moved, and that is the one piece of Wednesday not behaving like a panic.
Five Desks Called It a Shock. The Market Already Treats It as Noise.
The TSX composite closed Wednesday at 34,935.80, down 335 points or 0.955 percent from Tuesday's 35,272.59, its steepest single day decline in more than a month. By Thursday late morning it had recovered 235.87 points to 35,171.67, helped by strength in the financial and base metals sectors, according to the Canadian Press market wire. That is a market correcting a one day overreaction, not absorbing new information about the war.
Percentage change measured from Wednesday's close to Thursday late morning trading. The Government of Canada 10 year yield is shown as basis point stickiness, not a percentage price move, since yields do not reverse the way equity and commodity prices do. Source: The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg market wire, July 9 2026.
Commodities show the same pattern. WTI crude spiked as much as 7.4 percent intraday Wednesday on President Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was over and the US revoking Iran's oil sale waiver. By Thursday, WTI was down $1.01 to $72.51, pressured by a surprise 3 million barrel build in US commercial crude inventories, the first weekly stockpile increase since April, according to Investing.com. Gold fell to its lowest level since July 2 on Wednesday's escalation, then rose $54.80 to $4,137.20 by Thursday as the US dollar eased back from its post FOMC minutes strength.
The One Line That Did Not Round Trip
The Government of Canada 10 year yield rose as much as 9.5 basis points Wednesday to 3.590 percent intraday, closing near 3.55 to 3.56 percent, its highest level since May, according to Trading Economics. It has not come back down. Unlike the TSX, oil, or gold, the bond market's repricing of Bank of Canada hike odds from roughly 40 percent to roughly 60 percent this week has no Thursday reversal to point to.
This is the piece none of the five desks could see this morning, because none had Thursday's data yet. The Economy desk flagged the odds jump correctly. What only becomes visible now is that the oil spike and the risk off equity move driving that repricing are already unwinding, while the yield itself holds near its high. A market done panicking about the war is not done repricing the Bank of Canada.
Thursday's figure is a late morning intraday print, not a confirmed close. The index has now round tripped through two similar sized single day moves within the same nine session window. Source: The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg, TMX Money.
What This Means Going Into July 15
The Bank's blackout period keeps it silent for six more days. If Wednesday's yield move were purely a war premium, Thursday's oil reversal should have started pulling it back down. It has not. That suggests bond markets are treating the FOMC minutes and the inflation risk they revealed as the more durable input, with the Iran escalation as the trigger that got traders to look at it. A hawkish Fed under a divided committee, not a tanker attack, may be the actual driver of what markets now expect from the Bank of Canada on July 15.
For an advisor with a client renewing a mortgage or reviewing bond duration before that date, the useful fact is not that markets panicked Wednesday and calmed Thursday. It is that the part of the panic tied to yields did not calm down, and that is the part that actually prices their client's mortgage.