324 Points From a Record, the TSX Heads Into Its Busiest 48 Hours of the Summer

Canadian equity markets navigated a week of crosscurrents between strong domestic data and renewed geopolitical volatility heading into a catalyst heavy week. Photo: iStock.

Market

324 Points From a Record, the TSX Heads Into Its Busiest 48 Hours of the Summer

Jul 13, 2026 6 min The Market Desk

The Brief

The TSX closed at 35,305.31 Friday, up 0.298% on the day and within 0.9% of its June 17 record of 35,629.89, after Canada's June jobs report beat expectations with 18,200 net new positions.
Brent crude has risen more than 4% in Monday trading to above 79 dollars a barrel following a fourth wave of US strikes on Iran, setting up a strong open for TSX energy names.
The Cboe Volatility Index closed Friday at 15.57, a level that reflects little options market pricing for the density of catalysts landing this week.
Gold fell 1.39% Monday to a two week low even as the geopolitical backdrop deteriorated, while the US 10 year Treasury yield climbed toward a two month high near 4.59%.
Three catalysts land inside a single 48 hour window this week: June CPI and Warsh's House testimony Tuesday, and Warsh's Senate testimony alongside the Bank of Canada's rate decision Wednesday.

The TSX closed at 35,305.31 Friday, up 0.298%, within 0.9% of its June 17 record of 35,629.89. The index closed the week on strength from Canada's June jobs report, which added 18,200 positions against a 10,000 forecast and pushed unemployment down to 6.5%, tied for the lowest reading in nearly two years.

Oil Sets Up Monday's Energy Trade

Brent crude has jumped more than 4% in Monday trading to above 79 dollars a barrel, its highest level since June 22, after the US launched a fourth wave of strikes against Iran over the weekend. WTI has moved in step, up close to 3% toward 74 dollars. The last time a Hormuz escalation of comparable direction moved Brent by roughly 2%, on July 7, Imperial Oil, Strathcona Resources, and Suncor each gained more than 2% within the first hour of trading. Monday's move in Brent is more than double the size of that one.

A Market Pricing Calm Into a Loud Week

The Cboe Volatility Index closed Friday at 15.57, a level that reflects little options market pricing for the density of catalysts landing this week. June CPI data and Kevin Warsh's first House testimony land Tuesday. Warsh's Senate testimony and the Bank of Canada's rate decision land Wednesday, within hours of each other. A VIX in the low teens into that calendar is either confidence the outcomes are already priced, or complacency the bond market does not share.

The bond market is not showing the same calm. The US 10 year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.59%, near a two month high, while Canada's 10 year sits at 3.55%, its highest level since May. Equities are pricing a quiet week. Rates are not.

What Moved and What Did Not

Gold fell 1.39% Monday to 4,063.91 dollars, a two week low, even as the geopolitical backdrop that would normally support it deteriorated further. The Canadian dollar closed Friday at 1.4132 per US dollar, having rebounded from a 15 month low of 1.425 on June 28 after the strong jobs print. That rebound faces renewed pressure Monday from both the oil driven inflation angle and a widening US Canada yield spread working against the loonie.

The index has traded in a narrowing band beneath its June 17 peak for three weeks, and Monday's oil driven energy strength arrives as the most likely catalyst to test whether that ceiling holds.

TSX COMPOSITE | DISTANCE FROM RECORD 35,305.31 ▲ +0.298% DAILY | JUN 22 TO JUL 10 2026

Source: TMX Money daily close data, June and July 2026. | hdq.ca

The index pulled back roughly 2.3% from its June 17 record before recovering through the first half of July on the back of a strong June jobs report.

Sources

TMX Money TSX Composite price history, July 10, 2026. Investing.com CA indices and VIX data. The National, Al Jazeera, and CNBC reporting on Brent and WTI crude, July 13, 2026. TradingEconomics gold, US and Canada 10 year Treasury yield, and Canadian dollar data, July 13, 2026. Kitco News reporting on July 7, 2026 TSX energy sector reaction to Hormuz tensions.

Educational content only. This article is published for informational and professional development purposes. It does not constitute investment advice, financial planning advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Canadian advisors should apply their own professional judgment. Full disclaimer.

Advisor Toolkits — Jul 13, 2026

🛡️ Respond ▼

What They're Feeling

Clients who have watched the TSX grind toward a record are feeling good, and clients with concentrated exposure to gold or bonds are feeling confused by this morning's cross currents. Neither group is asking the right question yet, which is what happens to this calm equity tape once Tuesday and Wednesday's catalysts actually land.

What to Say

The TSX closed Friday within about one percent of its all time high, and oil is up sharply again this morning after another round of strikes between the US and Iran. What I want you to know is that the options market, measured by the VIX, is not pricing much risk into a week that actually has three major catalysts landing in a 48 hour window: US inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony Tuesday, and the Bank of Canada's decision alongside Warsh's Senate testimony Wednesday. That gap between a calm equity market and a much less calm bond market is worth watching. I am not making changes to your portfolio today, but I want you prepared for the possibility that this week moves more than the current pricing suggests.

Who's Affected

High impact: Clients with concentrated Canadian energy positions who benefit from this morning's oil driven strength but are also most exposed if the pattern fades the way prior escalations have.

Mixed impact: Broadly diversified clients whose portfolios will feel this week's catalysts through multiple channels, equities, bonds, and currency, rather than any single position.

Potential benefit: Clients holding short duration fixed income who benefit from the recent rise in yields on new purchases or reinvestment.

Action Checklist

Review client sector weightings ahead of Tuesday's CPI print and Wednesday's BoC decision and Warsh testimony

Flag clients with concentrated energy exposure for a conversation about this week's specific catalyst calendar

Note the VIX at 15.57 as a talking point for clients who may be underestimating this week's event risk

Document today's conversations as monitoring ahead of a catalyst dense week, not repositioning

Follow-Up Email Template

Subject: A calm market heading into a loud week

Hi [Client Name],

Following our call, here is the short version. The TSX closed Friday within about one percent of its June 17 record, and oil is up sharply again this morning on fresh US Iran strikes. The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 15.57 Friday, a level that does not reflect much pricing for the catalysts landing this week: US inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony Tuesday, and the Bank of Canada's decision alongside Warsh's Senate appearance Wednesday.

No changes to your portfolio today. I wanted you to have the calendar in front of you before the week gets busy.

[Your Name]

This communication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice.

🎯 Prospect ▼

Client Profiles to Target

DIY equity investors: Self directed investors watching the TSX approach a record without a plan for a week carrying this much catalyst density.

Energy sector traders: Prospects trading Canadian energy names on today's oil headline without a broader risk framework for the week ahead.

Fixed income focused prospects: Investors who noticed rising bond yields but have not connected them to this week's Fed and Bank of Canada calendar.

Opening Line

The TSX is sitting about one percent from a record, and this week has three major catalysts landing inside 48 hours: US inflation data, the Fed chair's first Congressional testimony, and the Bank of Canada's rate decision. The options market is not pricing much of that in yet.

Value Proposition

A DIY investor watching the index approach a record has no framework for the catalyst density landing this specific week, or for why a low VIX reading might understate the actual risk. The advisor's value is translating a calm looking equity tape and an unusually busy 48 hour calendar into a specific, actionable read on portfolio positioning before the calendar plays out rather than after.

Discovery Questions

Are you tracking how close the TSX is to its June record, and what you would do if it breaks through or pulls back from here?

Do you have a plan in place for this week's Bank of Canada decision and the Fed chair's first Congressional testimony?

Has anyone explained why the bond market is moving more than the stock market is right now?

Prospecting Email Template

Subject: The TSX is near a record. This week has three reasons that could change.

Hi [Name],

The TSX closed Friday within one percent of its June record, and oil jumped again Monday on fresh US Iran strikes. This week packs three major catalysts into 48 hours: US inflation data and the Fed chair's first Congressional testimony Tuesday, and the Bank of Canada's rate decision alongside his Senate testimony Wednesday.

If you are managing your own portfolio through this calendar, I would be glad to walk through what the setup actually looks like.

[Your Name]

This communication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice.