The TSX closed at a record 35,749.70 Tuesday, up 181.56 points or 0.51%, its third consecutive record close. Technology did the heavy lifting. Celestica surged 9.5% after beating second quarter estimates reported after Monday's close, and Constellation Software jumped 6.4%. Energy and gold miners did the opposite. Cenovus fell 1.4%, Canadian Natural lost 1.3%, and Wheaton Precious Metals dropped 2.3% as oil and gold both retreated ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision.
That split matters because it reverses hard Wednesday morning. West Texas Intermediate jumped as much as 6.4% to $84.31 a barrel after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces overnight, all intercepted, with US and Saudi forces striking back in Iraq. Brent gained 6.6% to $89.61. The exact sector that dragged on Tuesday's record is the one now getting the strongest tailwind heading into Wednesday's session.
The Record That Left Energy Behind
Financials contributed too, if less dramatically. RBC and BMO each rose 1.1%, TD Bank added 0.6%, and Brookfield gained 0.7% after announcing it had raised roughly $2 billion for a Middle East focused private equity fund. Shopify, the index's most closely watched technology name, added 2.7% on the day after an intraday move as high as 11.64% earlier in Tuesday's session. The winners and losers split almost entirely along sector lines, a cleaner rotation than the index has shown on most days this month.
Ranked against each other, Tuesday's TSX movers show technology and select financials up while energy and gold miners sit on the losing side of the same session.
Figures reflect Tuesday's full session close. Every energy and gold mining name shown here trades on benchmarks that moved sharply higher overnight, a reversal not yet reflected in these numbers.
What Reversed Overnight
Oil's move is the headline number, but the mechanism is straightforward. Wednesday's attack came roughly a day after President Trump said the US had paused strikes on Iran, a pause that had itself driven three straight losing sessions for WTI, from above $99 around July 24 down to $81.04 by Tuesday's close. Cenovus reported second quarter results before Wednesday's opening bell showing record quarterly oil sands production of 786.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, a print that lands squarely inside a pricing environment the overnight escalation just extended.
TSX futures were in positive territory Wednesday morning, according to The Globe and Mail, a day after the index's latest record close. Wall Street futures were mixed, with Nasdaq futures pointed lower after Tuesday's US session split by sector: the Dow gained 537.24 points to 52,747.32 and the S&P 500 added 15.60 points to 7,428.78, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 55.17 points to 24,876.91 on renewed weakness in chip and AI related names. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei closed 1.49% lower and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.96%, while Europe's STOXX 600 was down 0.38% in morning trading.
What's Live Before the Close
The Canadian dollar traded at 70.91 cents US Tuesday, little changed from Monday's 70.85 cents, and remains the currency most directly exposed to whichever way oil settles Wednesday. Two catalysts still sit ahead of the closing bell: the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, priced by CME FedWatch at roughly a one in three chance of a hike, and the Bank of Canada's summary of deliberations from its July 15 meeting at 1:30 p.m. ET. Either one, layered on top of overnight oil's reversal, is enough to move Wednesday's close in a different direction than Tuesday's record implied.