The S&P/TSX Composite fell 351.54 points, or 0.97%, to 35,973.45 on Thursday, giving back 27% of the 1,283-point rally from the Oct. 7 low of 35,041.86. Brent crude settled at US$113.17, up 4.00% and the highest settlement since May 4. Canadian equities and oil moved in opposite directions on the same day, and the split came from two separate shocks: a metals slide in Toronto and an AI spending selloff in New York.
Why Materials Pulled the TSX Down While Oil Rose
Materials led the decline, down 4.4% according to market reports. December gold fell US$89.60 to US$4,060.40 an ounce, and copper hit a five-week low as inventories rose. Canadian technology shares fell 1.5%, with Celestica down 7.2% after Meta disclosed heavy spending commitments. Mullen Group rose 8.0% after it beat quarterly estimates.
The Canadian dollar rose to 71.32 U.S. cents from 71.14 on Wednesday, so the currency did not add to the selling.
Three of the six markets tracked here fell. The gains came from the Dow, up 0.02%, and two crude contracts.
The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,973.45, down 351.54 points. Brent December futures settled at US$113.17, the highest settlement since May 4, and WTI December futures settled at US$99.47.
The index had closed at 36,324.99 on Oct. 21, 10.62 points below its Sept. 22 level. Thursday put it 362.16 points below that mark.
The AI Selloff That Reached Toronto
The Nasdaq Composite fell 694.00 points, or 2.60%, to 26,008.86, its steepest drop since June. The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,663.43, its worst day since July. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.72% after Lam Research warned of supply-chain and clean-room constraints, and Meta disclosed roughly US$825 billion in future commitments.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished flat at 52,867.98, up 0.02%. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, and consumer staples gained 3.31% and utilities 2.07% as money rotated into defensive sectors. Technology fell 3.29%.
Treasuries rallied. The 10-year yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96%, the largest one-day drop since March 2023, and the 2-year fell 16 basis points to 4.65%. Yields fell while crude rose, so Thursday does not read as a plain risk-off day.
What Oil at US$113 Means for Friday
Attacks in the Gulf, including damage to tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, pushed Brent to its highest settlement in nearly six months. WTI settled at US$99.47, up 2.39%. S&P 500 energy stocks fell 0.87% anyway.
The Canadian implication runs through the Bank of Canada decision on Oct. 28. Crude at this level feeds the fuel component of CPI, and swaps priced about a 78% chance of a hike on Oct. 20 before the Thursday session. Falling U.S. yields work the other way. Friday opens with those two forces pulling against each other.
August retail sales from Statistics Canada were due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a forecast gain of 1.1% after a 0.7% decline the month before. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27 and 28, and the Bank of Canada follows on Oct. 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET.