The TSX Composite closed Friday at a record 36,381.23, up 0.68 percent, extending a run built almost entirely on mining stocks. Gold miners led: Agnico Eagle climbed 5.9 percent, Barrick gained 5 percent, and Wheaton Precious Metals jumped 6.6 percent, with the broader group of gold names advancing between 2.6 and 14 percent as a shock US payrolls decline reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and pushed gold to its biggest weekly gain of 2026.
Financials moved the other way. RBC fell 0.7 percent and TD Bank lost 0.4 percent as Canada's own jobs report, 75,100 new positions against a 15,000 forecast, raised the odds the Bank of Canada eventually has more room to lean firm on rates if inflation pressures persist. Two rate stories, one index, opposite sector reactions.
Monday's Setup Inverts Friday's Leadership
Brent crude is up 1.4 percent to US$84.70 in early trading, and WTI has added a similar amount to US$79.31, both clawing back part of last week's 7.3 percent decline. The move follows Iran's weekend statement that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen without sanctions relief and war reparations from Washington, a harder line than the imminent-deal optimism that drove oil lower through last week.
Gold, meanwhile, is easing modestly from Friday's close as the immediate safe haven bid cools. If that pattern holds through the Toronto open, energy names are positioned to outperform gold miners for the first session in over a week, an inversion of exactly the leadership that carried the index to Friday's record.
Reading the Tape
The 23-session run into Friday's close, with Friday's Canada/US jobs divergence marked against it, shows how quickly this index's leadership has rotated between rate-sensitive sectors and commodity plays:
The index traded without a session on August 3 for the Civic Holiday. Volume climbed on both August 4 and August 7 as the market digested GDP and employment data.
Volume on Friday hit 300.3 million shares, in line with the 363.5 million seen the prior Monday when Q2 GDP data first landed, both above the 23-session average near 250 million. Elevated volume on the days carrying the heaviest macro data confirms this move has been driven by the data, not by thin, low conviction trading.
What to Watch at the Open
Shopify and other technology names benefited Friday from positive Wall Street sentiment tied to the same soft US jobs report that lifted gold, rising 2.4 percent. That correlation, tech following US rate expectations rather than Canadian fundamentals, is worth tracking again this week if Fed hold odds keep climbing on incoming US inflation data due August 12 and 13.
The five-year Government of Canada bond yield's jump to 3.274 percent intraday Friday, detailed in today's Tax and Wealth desk, is the mechanism behind Friday's bank stock weakness. Watch whether that yield holds above 3.25 percent through the week, since a further climb would extend the pressure on rate-sensitive financials even as the broader index rides gold and now energy strength.