The TSX closed Friday at 36,620.23, up 0.70%, gold miners and financials doing the lifting while retailers lagged. Futures point softer this morning as three separate catalysts land in the same seventy-two hours: Iran sanctions details this afternoon, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday. WTI is down 2.0% to $85.32 in early trade, Brent off 1.5% to $92.95, and gold is holding near $4,656, up another 1% after last week's 5% run.
The USD/CAD pair tells the sharper story. The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback this morning to around 1.385, even as the U.S. dollar index sits near a one-week low against a broader currency basket. That is not gold's decoupling from last week repeating itself. It is the trade dispute pricing directly into the currency, a domestic Canadian catalyst overriding a global U.S. dollar trend that would otherwise be pulling the loonie stronger.
Friday's Rally Had a Narrow Base
Friday's 0.70% gain came almost entirely from two sectors. Agnico Eagle rose 2.3%, Barrick added 2.9%, and Wheaton Precious Metals jumped 4.9% as gold extended its run past $4,600. Financials followed on weaker-than-expected retail sales data, which reinforced bets that the Bank of Canada holds again September 2, BMO up 0.6% and Scotiabank adding 1%. Retailers moved the other way, Dollarama and Loblaw both lower, a signal that the softer consumer spending number cuts both ways depending on which side of the balance sheet a sector sits on.
The August 18 decline tracked a global bond selloff after the 30-year Treasury yield hit a near two-decade high, not a Canada-specific catalyst. Source: Trading Economics, The Globe and Mail.
The index touched a fresh high of 36,844.73 on August 14 before a sharp reversal, a 0.8% single-day decline to 36,367.93 on August 18 as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in nearly two decades, dragging rate-sensitive names lower globally. The recovery since has been gold-led, not broad-based, which is the more fragile kind of rally to be sitting on heading into this week's catalyst cluster.
What Actually Moves Today
Energy is the sector most directly exposed to this afternoon's news. Oil eased into the sanctions announcement rather than rallying ahead of it, this desk's Geopolitical coverage traces why, and Canadian producers hold a floor above $90 either way the enforcement question resolves. The bigger near-term risk sits with the banks: a widening trade dispute complicates credit demand assumptions just as financials were leaning on a rate-hold thesis to justify Friday's gain.
Watch the loonie more than the index today. A currency pricing a domestic trade shock while the U.S. dollar softens broadly is the cleanest read available on how seriously this market is taking the September 8 tariff date, cleaner than equity moves that are getting pulled in three directions by Iran, Nvidia, and Jackson Hole simultaneously.