The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,532.28 on Tuesday, November 3, down 268.82 points or 0.75%, its lowest close since October 9, according to YCharts. US indexes were mixed on Election Day. The S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 25,372.01, while the Dow fell 0.38% to 51,786.72, according to published closing data.
The TSX Is 2% Lower Since the Bank of Canada Hiked
The index closed at 36,265.09 on October 28, the day the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%. It has since lost 2.0%. The path was uneven: a drop of 1.74% on October 30 to 35,620.03, a gain of 0.51% on November 2, then the Tuesday decline.
The November 2 session matters for the energy story. Oil fell more than 7% that day, according to Reuters, yet the TSX rose. The index did not trade as a simple oil proxy, which is worth remembering when Brent moves.
The wider window is flat. The index closed at 35,460.27 on September 29, so the net change over the period is a gain of 0.2%. The October 21 close of 36,324.99 is the high, and the October 7 close of 35,041.86 is the low.
The shaded period starts on October 28, the day of the Bank of Canada rate announcement. The index closed that day at 36,265.09 and ended the window at 35,532.28, a decline of 2.0%.
Rates: The Five-Year Yield Is 0.80 Points Higher Than a Year Ago
The Government of Canada five-year yield closed at 3.51% on Tuesday, up 0.03 percentage points on the day and down 0.11 points over the past month. It remains 0.80 points above its level a year earlier, according to Trading Economics. The 10-year yield stood at 3.79%.
The Bank of Canada said on October 28 that further increases may be needed, and Governor Tiff Macklem repeated that message to the House of Commons finance committee on November 3. The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on October 28, according to The Globe and Mail. The Bank is therefore tightening while its US counterpart holds, which keeps rate expectations at the centre of Canadian equity pricing.
The Election Result Reaches Markets Through Trade Policy
Democrats won both the House and the Senate, according to CBS and CNN. The first market read was muted. The S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday, and FinanceFeeds reported gold above $4,000 on Wednesday as the dollar touched a one-month low.
For Canadian investors, the channel is trade. Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Tuesday that more intense talks with Washington have started, and President Donald Trump told Fox News that a deal with Canada is coming very soon. A confirmed agreement would matter more for TSX sectors tied to cross-border trade than the election result itself.
The Calendar Is Dense Before the Next Bank of Canada Decision
Budget 2026 is tabled on November 5. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has warned that deficits will average $3 billion higher annually over five years, rising above $63 billion in 2030-31 against $53 billion projected. The Labour Force Survey for October follows on November 6, and the next consumer price index release is due November 16.
Brent crude traded near $104 this week, according to FinanceFeeds, after a peak of $117.64 on October 30. HDQ base case is that the TSX trades in the recent 35,000 to 36,500 range while rate expectations and Iran talks set direction. A sustained close under the October 7 low of 35,041.86 would end that range.