Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.

Rising bond yields and a deal-driven drop in Canada's largest oil sands name pushed the S&P/TSX Composite to 35,445.54 on ordinary volume.

The last 2026 trade date is December 30, the superficial loss rule can erase a loss repurchased inside a TFSA or RRSP, and the bracket sets what a harvested loss is worth.

Canadian growth was flat, yet yields pushed toward 4 per cent and the TSX lost four sessions in a row. Friday payrolls showed where the Bank of Canada rate path was really being set.

Equities priced relief on Friday, but Treasury yields and USD/CAD closed higher, and the currency has done more to separate Canadian portfolio returns since August 26 than any move in the TSX.

The index fell 0.23% on October 1, sits 5.16% below its August high and lost 2.85% in September, as materials and financials fell on higher yields while energy and technology gained.

The VIX closed at 16.39, 5.4 points below its 25-year October average, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002.

The index closed September 30 at the low of the day, its lowest close since July 31. Gold futures fell 6.6% as the US 10-year yield rose 51 basis points, and First Quantum closed 15% lower on Panama news.

The TSX Composite closed September 2.85% below its August 31 level and 1.09% above its June 30 level, the ninth straight quarterly gain. Behavioural research explains why the shorter window tends to win the emotional argument.

The 3-month yield fell and the 30-year yield rose after the August PCE, while the US minus Canada 10-year spread and USD/CAD kept climbing.

The TSX closed at its lowest level since July 31, gold and materials ETFs fell 6% to 8%, and energy stocks slipped even as Brent gained 13%.

The S&P/TSX Composite lost 0.87% on a gold selloff while U.S. yields hit levels last seen in 2007, and the Federal Reserve decision on October 28 now carries most of the weight.

Crude rose 3.1% and the TSX fell, but the clearest signal was gold dropping 2.9%: a haven priced against a near 5.2% yield stops behaving like one.

TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,800.89, up 94 points, even as the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.18 percent, its highest since the financial crisis, and Canadian yields touched a 34-month high before easing.

A 50 percent US tariff on Canadian goods took effect the same month Brent crude spiked above $108 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and the two shocks are pulling the same index in opposite directions.

University of Michigan sentiment fell to a four-month low in September while the TSX Composite gained 19 percent over the same year, a divergence behavioural finance traces to which information stays most vivid in memory.