BOC POLICY RATE VS FED FUNDS RATE 1.375pp GAP ▲ DIVERGING MONTHLY  |  JAN – JUN 2026

Source: Bank of Canada interest rate announcements, January through June 2026. Federal Reserve FOMC statements, January through June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI, YEAR OVER YEAR 3.2% ▲ +0.4 PTS MONTHLY  |  DEC 2025 TO MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Consumer Price Index releases.  |  hdq.ca

FOMC YEAR END 2026 PROJECTIONS 3.8% ▲ MEDIAN, FROM 3.4% 18 PARTICIPANTS  |  JUN 17, 2026

Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, June 17, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BOC POLICY RATE FORECASTS 3.00% ▲ SCOTIABANK PATH FORECAST  |  2026 TO 2027

Source: Scotiabank, RBC Economics, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer, forecasts published June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BOC VS FED POLICY RATE PATH, 2026 2.25% / 3.50-3.75% ▲ GAP WIDENING MONTHLY  |  JAN TO DEC 2026 (PROJECTED)

Source: Bank of Canada policy rate schedule; Federal Reserve June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections.  |  hdq.ca

FED FUNDS TARGET, UPPER BOUND 3.75% ▶ HOLD PER MEETING  |  OCT 2025 TO JUN 2026

Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC target range by meeting, October 2025 to June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI vs BOC POLICY RATE / HEADLINE AND HOLD 2.80% ▲ CPI Apr 2026 Monthly  |  Jan 2025 - Jun 2026

Source: Statistics Canada CPI releases Jan 2025 to Apr 2026; Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions. BoC rate shown as step line against left axis for comparison.  |  hdq.ca

BoC OVERNIGHT RATE | WITH POLICY SCENARIO PATHS 2.25% Hold Monthly  |  Oct 2025 to Dec 2026 projected

Source: Bank of Canada rate announcements; C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, June 4, 2026; TD Economics, June 10, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BANK OF CANADA OVERNIGHT RATE 2.25% ▬ Fifth consecutive hold Monthly  |  Jan 2022 to Jun 2026

Source: Bank of Canada, Policy Interest Rate, June 10, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI: HEADLINE VS CORE TRIMMED-MEAN (YoY %) 2.8% ▲ Headline Apr 2026 Monthly  |  Jan 2025 to Apr 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, April 2026 release (May 19, 2026). Bank of Canada core inflation measures.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA HEADLINE CPI VS CORE INFLATION 2.8% / 2.1% ▲ Headline Apr 2026 MONTHLY  |  JAN 2025 - APR 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, April 2026 (released May 19, 2026); Bank of Canada, core inflation measures CPI-median and CPI-trim.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA: REAL GDP GROWTH vs. CPI INFLATION 2.8% CPI Apr 2026 Quarterly/Monthly  |  Q1 2025 to Apr 2026

Source: Statistics Canada GDP releases (Q4 2025 revised, Q1 2026); Statistics Canada CPI releases Feb 2025 to Apr 2026.  |  hdq.ca

GoC 5Y YIELD vs BoC OVERNIGHT RATE 3.42% ▼ GoC 5Y Jun 6 Monthly  |  Jan 2024 to Jun 2026

Source: Bank of Canada, Government of Canada benchmark bond yields, June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.9% ▲ Apr 2026 Monthly  |  Jan 2025 to Apr 2026

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, monthly, January 2025 to April 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA REAL GDP — ANNUALIZED QUARTERLY GROWTH -0.1% ▼ Q1 2026 Quarterly annualized  |  Q1 2024–Q1 2026

Source: Statistics Canada National Accounts, May 29, 2026; Bank of Canada April 2026 MPR.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA — GDP GROWTH VS BoC POLICY RATE 2.25% ● Hold Quarterly annualized  |  Q1 2025–Q1 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP Q1 2026 (released May 29, 2026); Bank of Canada policy rate history.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA — QUARTERLY GDP GROWTH (ANNUALISED) vs. BOC RATE -0.1% ▼ Q1 2026 Quarterly  |  Q3 2024–Q1 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP by income and expenditure Q1 2026, May 29, 2026; Bank of Canada, policy rate decisions 2024–2026.  |  hdq.ca

GOC 5Y YIELD vs. BOC POLICY RATE — 2026 3.05% ▼ 14bps month-over-month WEEKLY  |  JAN-MAY 2026

Source: Trading Economics, True North Mortgage, LSEG. GoC 5-year bond yield weekly closes, Bank of Canada policy rate.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA — REAL GDP vs. BOC MPR FORECAST (ANNUALIZED %) -0.1% ▼ vs. +1.2% BoC forecast Quarterly annualized  |  Q1 2025–Q1 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP Income and Expenditure Q1 2026, May 29, 2026; Bank of Canada MPR April 2026; Statistics Canada advance April estimate.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA REAL GDP -- QUARTERLY ANNUALIZED GROWTH +1.7% ▲ Q1 2026 est. Quarterly SAAR  |  Q1 2024 -- Q1 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report April 2026, RBC Economics and TD Economics Q1 estimates. Q1 2026 bars are estimates pending official release May 29.  |  hdq.ca