FED — JULY 29 HIKE PROBABILITY 16.6% ▼ FROM 46.5% PEAK CME FEDWATCH  |  JUL 2 TO JUL 21, 2026

Source: CME FedWatch, cited via CNBC and Chase, Jul 2 to Jul 21 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BOC OVERNIGHT RATE: DECISION HISTORY 2.25% HELD PER DECISION  |  JAN 2025 TO JUL 2026

Source: Bank of Canada rate decisions, Jan 2025 to Jul 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BOC — OVERNIGHT TARGET RATE 2.25% ▶ UNCHANGED PER DECISION  |  JUN 2024 TO JUL 2026

Source: Bank of Canada, fixed announcement date press releases, June 2024 to July 2026.  |  hdq.ca

WTI CRUDE : BoC ASSUMPTION $83.48 ▲ +2.1% DAILY  |  JUN 22 TO JUL 20

Source: Investing.com, Trading Economics; Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, July 15, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI: 12-MONTH PERCENTAGE CHANGE 3.2% ▲ May 2026, vs 2.8% April Monthly  |  Jun 2025 to May 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, The Daily, monthly releases Jun 2025 to May 2026.  |  hdq.ca

US CPI YEAR OVER YEAR 3.5% ▼ FROM 4.2% PEAK MONTHLY  |  JUN 2025 TO JUN 2026

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, June 2026 release.  |  hdq.ca

WTI: CRUDE OIL FRONT MONTH $79.75 ▲ 16.4% SINCE JULY 6 LOW DAILY  |  JUN 15 TO JUL 15 2026

Source: Investing.com daily close data, June 15 to July 15 2026.  |  hdq.ca

US CPI: HEADLINE VS CORE 3.5% ▼ FROM 4.2% MONTHLY  |  DEC 2025 TO JUN 2026

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index news releases, December 2025 to June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

FOMC JUNE 2026 | INDIVIDUAL RATE PATH PREFERENCE 9 of 12 ▲ FAVOUR HIKES JUNE 16 TO 17 MEETING  |  FIRST WARSH CHAIRED FOMC

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC June 2026 meeting minutes; Bank of Canada policy rate schedule, July 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BANK OF CANADA OVERNIGHT RATE 2.25% ■ HOLD X5 8X/YR  |  JAN 2025 TO JUL 2026

Source: Bank of Canada, scheduled policy rate announcements, January 2025 to July 2026.  |  hdq.ca

BOC OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET 2.25% FIFTH CONSECUTIVE HOLD EACH FIXED DATE  |  JAN 2025 TO JUL 2026

Source: Bank of Canada fixed announcement date press releases, January 2025 to June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI: HEADLINE YOY 3.2% ▲ energy-driven since March MONTHLY  |  JAN TO MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada CPI releases; Bank of Canada rate announcements, March 18, April 29, and June 10, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI: YEAR OVER YEAR 3.2% ▲ FROM 2.8% MONTHLY  |  AUG 2025 TO MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index monthly releases, August 2025 to May 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI, YEAR OVER YEAR 3.2% ▲ 0.4pp MONTHLY  |  NOV 2025 TO MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, monthly CPI releases, Nov 2025 to May 2026.  |  hdq.ca

GoC 5Y YIELD vs BoC POLICY RATE 3.07% ▼ vs 2.25% BoC rate Monthly  |  Jul 2025 - Jul 2026  |  hdq.ca

Source: Trading Economics, Bank of Canada selected bond yields; Bank of Canada policy rate announcements. GoC 5Y as of July 2, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA GDP: MONTHLY CHANGE +0.5% ▲ April, strongest since Jul 2025 MONTHLY  |  OCT 2025 - MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP by industry, June 30, 2026. May 2026 is an advance estimate subject to revision on July 31.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA REAL GDP BY INDUSTRY, MONTHLY CHANGE 0.4% EST. ▲ APR ADVANCE MONTHLY  |  JUL 2025 TO APR 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP by industry, monthly series, advance estimates flagged at time of prior release.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI HEADLINE VS CORE, NOV 2025 TO MAY 2026 3.2% / 2.1% ▲ HEADLINE GAP WIDENING MONTHLY  |  STATCAN

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, June 22, 2026.  |  hdq.ca

USD/CAD | SPOT EXCHANGE RATE 1.4202 ▼ -0.28% DAILY  |  JUN 13 TO JUN 26

Source: MTFX; Wise; Trading Economics; Bank of Canada exchange rate data, June 2026.  |  hdq.ca

CANADA CPI: HEADLINE VS. CORE TRIM 3.2% ▲ 0.4pp MONTHLY  |  NOV 2025 TO MAY 2026

Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, May 2026 release.  |  hdq.ca