Brent's April 8 ceasefire plunge and partial recovery reflects the market's repeated re-pricing of a settlement that has not materialized. The $17 gap between current prices and the Bank of Canada's Q2 baseline assumption represents the direct stakes for Canadian monetary policy of the Trump-Xi summit outcome.

Brent crude surged from approximately $72 per barrel before the February 28 conflict to a peak near $120 in late March before the April 8 ceasefire provided partial relief; prices have since fallen to the $94-$95 range as the ceasefire holds nominally but Hormuz remains largely closed. Source: Trading Economics, CNBC.