WTI surged from approximately $69 pre-conflict to a peak above $108 in early April before partial retreat on ceasefire optimism. The structural floor estimate of approximately $80 reflects supply destruction and SPR depletion requirements that persist regardless of when diplomacy succeeds. The pre-conflict price level of approximately $69 is not recoverable within the near-term supply picture.

The gap between Brent spot at $111 and the EIA's Q2 average assumption of $106 reflects the negotiating impasse; every week of stalemate beyond the EIA's assumed June resumption date adds approximately $2 to $3 per barrel to the quarter's average, compounding the deviation from the base case on which most central bank models currently operate.

Brent crude fell approximately $3 on the Trump postponement announcement but remains $30 above the pre-war baseline, reflecting a war premium that has persisted through three prior negotiating milestones: the March ultimatum postponements, the April 8 ceasefire, and today's announcement. Source: Reuters; ICE Brent futures.

Brent has traded above the Bank of Canada's Q2 base-case assumption of approximately $90 for the majority of the closure period. The gap between the BoC's oil price assumption and the actual price is the primary driver of the upside CPI risk that the May 13 deliberations acknowledged as the hike trigger.

The Iran War band marks the onset of the Hormuz closure in early March 2026. The WCS discount to WTI (right axis, dashed) compressed from a typical $24 range to approximately $12 to $14, reflecting the removal of competing Middle Eastern heavy sour crude from global markets. The gold pill marks current WTI at $102 premarket; the green dot marks WCS at approximately $88.

WTI peaked near $117 in early April before the ceasefire announcement triggered a sharp pullback. The subsequent reimposition of the U.S. naval blockade and the failure of the Islamabad negotiations have kept prices well above $100. The IEA's Wednesday warning that the market will remain undersupplied until October even with a resolution next month sets the floor for the current range. Source: Trading Economics, NYMEX.