April 2026's +1.4% monthly PPI reading is the first figure to approach the 2022 peak cluster since the Iran war began. The March 2022 reading of +1.4% preceded several months of elevated producer price pressure that ultimately fed through to consumer prices with a one-to-two quarter lag.

The July 2025 CPI spike to 2.5% reflected temporary factors; the March 2026 acceleration to 2.4% is energy-driven and expected to continue into April. Core inflation (dashed line) has remained anchored just above 2% throughout, which is why the Bank has maintained its hold posture. A core breakout above 2.5% in April or May would change the policy calculus significantly. Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada.