The TSX's YTD performance is almost entirely explained by two sectors moving in opposite directions for different reasons. Energy is up on Hormuz supply risk. Information Technology is down 27% as rate uncertainty and stagflation fears compress growth multiples. The other eight sectors are broadly flat to modestly positive or negative.

The February selloff from 32,800 to a trough near 30,800 coincides precisely with the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war on February 28; the subsequent recovery through April and May reflects the ceasefire signed April 8, partially offset by lingering energy price pressure and the fragile state of Hormuz navigation. Source: TMX Group, Trading Economics.