Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.

The composite fell 67.61 points Friday to cap a week shaped by the Federal Reserve first rate hike since 2023 and a Hormuz-driven swing in oil. Energy was the sole sector to post a weekly gain among the decliners.

The Government of Canada five-year yield has climbed nearly half a point since late August. August CPI shows why the Bank of Canada cannot simply celebrate a flat headline number.

The Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023 while the Bank of Canada held and floated cuts, yet Canadian bond yields kept climbing regardless of which way the Bank leans.

Thursday's Fed relief rally reversed within one session, and the asset that should have fallen alongside rising bond yields did the opposite instead.

Seven consecutive holds at 2.25 percent look increasingly conservative next to a Federal Reserve that just raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023, and it is arriving while Canadian inflation is stuck at 3.0 percent.

A rate increase that would have rattled markets a year ago produced a contained pullback and a same day recovery. The calm reaction says more about investor psychology than about the underlying risk.

Two central banks read the same energy-driven inflation data this week and reached opposite conclusions about whether it will last. Thursday sided with the one that held.

The gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada compressed to 150 basis points by December, and the September hike pushed it straight back to 175.

The Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point increase that its own projections had signalled for weeks, yet markets reacted as though it were a surprise.

A hawkish Fed hike hit Wall Street and TSX financials the same day Ottawa and Brussels moved to deepen trade and defence ties.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates this afternoon for the first time since 2023, while the Bank of Canada just held for an eighth straight meeting facing the same energy-driven inflation pressure.

VIX sits in the mid-teens as Strait of Hormuz strikes continue and the Federal Reserve prepares its first rate increase since 2023, a gap behavioural finance has a name for.

The safe-haven trade that should have followed a physical bypass shutdown around the Strait of Hormuz never arrived, and the reason points to Wednesday's rate decision, not the war.

Canadian inflation held at 3% in August on rent and gasoline. The Fed meets Wednesday with markets pricing roughly nine-in-ten odds of a hike on the same oil-driven pressure. The two central banks are reading the identical shock in opposite directions.

A weekend tanker strike and a damaged Saudi pipeline pushed WTI toward $103, but stocks, gold and the Canadian dollar all moved the other way, pointing to Wednesday''s Fed decision as the real driver.