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Vol. 1  ·  No. 689
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314 articles
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Coverage: stance:base case
314articles
Apr 1, 2026first coverage
Oct 5, 2026most recent
Tax & Wealth (85)Economy (67)Market (83)Geopolitical (24)Weekend Edition (3)Behavioural (52)
Tax & Wealth
Tax-Loss Selling Has 86 Days Left, and the Same $10,000 Loss Is Worth Between $953 and $2,676 in Ontario
The last 2026 trade date is December 30, the superficial loss rule can erase a loss repurchased inside a TFSA or RRSP, and the bracket sets what a harvested loss is worth.
Oct 5, 2026 5 min
Market
The TSX Fell 2.85% in September While the Main US Index Lost 0.45%: Gold, Materials and a US Yield Above 5% Explain the Gap
The index closed September 30 at the low of the day, its lowest close since July 31. Gold futures fell 6.6% as the US 10-year yield rose 51 basis points, and First Quantum closed 15% lower on Panama news.
Oct 1, 2026 5 min
Geopolitical
Hormuz Flow Estimates Differ by a Factor of Four While the US Rejects the Iranian Seven-Day Reopening Offer
Estimates of oil moving through the strait range from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day. Iran offered a seven-day reopening, Washington rejected the sequencing, and Brent moved less than 3% on either headline.
Oct 1, 2026 5 min
Economy
Canadian Inflation Is Back at 3% While Growth Stalls: What the Bank of Canada Can Look Through on October 28
Headline CPI reached the ceiling of the 1% to 3% control range in August on gasoline, while core measures sit near 2% and July GDP was flat. September CPI on October 19 frames the decision.
Oct 1, 2026 5 min
Tax & Wealth
The CRA Prescribed Rate Holds at 3% for a Sixth Quarter: What a Family Loan Made Before December 31 Locks In
The prescribed rate stays at 3% from October 1 to December 31, half its early 2024 peak. The rate on a spousal or family trust loan is fixed on the day the loan is made, and the interest is due by January 30.
Oct 1, 2026 5 min
Behavioural
Down 2.85% for the Month, Up 1.09% for the Quarter: Why Myopic Loss Aversion Picks the Worse Number
The TSX Composite closed September 2.85% below its August 31 level and 1.09% above its June 30 level, the ninth straight quarterly gain. Behavioural research explains why the shorter window tends to win the emotional argument.
Oct 1, 2026 5 min
Geopolitical
Iran Seven-Day Hormuz Plan Meets a US Demand for a Nuclear Package, and Oil Is Pricing the Saudi Bypass, Not a Reopening
Qatar is carrying an amended proposal, President Trump expects a deal only after the November midterms, and Brent settled at $102.59 after a 13% September gain.
Sep 30, 2026 6 min
Economy
A Flat July Leaves Canadian Growth Tracking About 2% for the Third Quarter, So the October 28 Decision Turns on Energy Inflation
Construction and utilities offset manufacturing and retail in July, August is tracking a 0.2% gain, and three bank economics teams read the Bank of Canada risk differently.
Sep 30, 2026 6 min
Tax & Wealth
The Prescribed Rate Holds at 3% for a Sixth Quarter, and the October T-Bill Auctions Decide Whether It Reaches 2027
A family loan made by December 31 locks in 3% for life, the Government of Canada 10-year yield is near 4%, and the January 30 interest deadline falls on a Saturday.
Sep 30, 2026 6 min
Market
TSX Fell 0.87% to Its Lowest Close Since July as the 10-Year Treasury Yield Passed 5.2%
The S&P/TSX Composite lost 0.87% on a gold selloff while U.S. yields hit levels last seen in 2007, and the Federal Reserve decision on October 28 now carries most of the weight.
Sep 29, 2026 6 min
Geopolitical
Oil Faded the Rejection of Iran Hormuz Plan Because Physical Supply Is Recovering
WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.
Sep 29, 2026 6 min
Market
The TSX Gained Friday, But the Real Story Was a 5.18 Percent Treasury Yield
TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,800.89, up 94 points, even as the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.18 percent, its highest since the financial crisis, and Canadian yields touched a 34-month high before easing.
Sep 28, 2026 5 min
Geopolitical
Why the Tariff War and the Tanker War Are Landing on the TSX Differently
A 50 percent US tariff on Canadian goods took effect the same month Brent crude spiked above $108 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and the two shocks are pulling the same index in opposite directions.
Sep 28, 2026 5 min
Economy
The Core Inflation Number Getting Lost Beneath the Gasoline Headline
Headline CPI held at 3.0 percent in August for a second straight month, but the measures the Bank of Canada actually watches tell a calmer story, and that gap explains a seventh consecutive rate hold.
Sep 28, 2026 4 min
Tax & Wealth
The 2027 TFSA Limit Is Already Decided, Five Months Early
CPI data the CRA has already published makes the 2027 TFSA contribution limit mathematically certain at $7,500, a number advisors can build into client conversations months before the formal announcement.
Sep 28, 2026 4 min
Behavioural
The Widening Gap Between Consumer Sentiment and TSX Reality
University of Michigan sentiment fell to a four-month low in September while the TSX Composite gained 19 percent over the same year, a divergence behavioural finance traces to which information stays most vivid in memory.
Sep 28, 2026 4 min
Showing 1–16 of 314 articles
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