The TSX Composite closed nearly unchanged Thursday even as banks fell and gold miners rallied sharply, with today's session set to turn on whether the US and Canada finalize a trade deal before tonight's tariff deadline.

The BoC's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings, but the Government of Canada 10-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in the same window, driven by a US bond market the Bank of Canada does not control.

The CRA confirmed its prescribed rate holds at 3 percent for a sixth consecutive quarter, even as rising Government of Canada bond yields raise the odds that the rate used to calculate it moves higher next year.

Canadian bank shares and gold miners moved in opposite directions this week, and the reasoning has more to do with which headline landed most recently than with either sector's fundamentals.

The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Headline CPI accelerated to 3.0 percent in July while core inflation barely moved, and the Federal Reserve's July minutes showed hawkish sentiment running deeper than the three known dissents.

The CRA confirmed the prescribed rate at 3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2026, but Government of Canada yields near a two year high mean the rate advisors lock in for income splitting loans today may not be available for long.

Banks and miners fell, energy rose, and a semiconductor selloff that started in the US spread to South Korea overnight.

A hot GDP print, a 3.0 percent headline number and a Fed watching Treasury yields hit 19 year highs all land on Macklem's desk before September 2.

Friday's Section 338 deadline runs on entry date, not ship date, and that distinction is the real planning window this week.

Trump paused Section 338 tariffs three hours before the deadline. The market is pricing it as resolved. It isn't.

Energy and gold names had a strong Monday. Technology and rate-sensitive names didn't. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest close since 2007 is what decides which story wins Tuesday.

Core inflation has been flat for three months. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 is the number that actually moves Canadian mortgage rates.

A 50% US tariff on Canadian goods takes effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday with no exemption and no runway. What advisors can still control sits inside the CCPC, not outside it.

Monday's decline was 0.17%. The instinct it triggers in clients sitting on a year of record gains is not nearly so small.

Capital gains realized in a record year for the TSX and gold interact with the Alternative Minimum Tax and the OAS recovery tax, neither of which cares that the inclusion rate increase was cancelled.