A Treasury buyback and a tariff truce produced a clean risk-on session across equities, oil and the loonie. Gold rose more than all of them, and that gap is the story.

The Bank of Canada's September 2 decision is likely a formality. The window on either side of it, running through Jackson Hole and the Fed's own September 16 meeting, is where Canadian bond yields are actually being set.

A blowout jobs report pushed Canadian equities to a fresh high. A widening Iran conflict pushed oil and gold to their own. Friday's US retail sales miss cracked one of those stories without touching the other.

Canada's economy is running hotter than the Bank's own forecast while US inflation cools, and Government of Canada yields are already pricing the difference.

Wednesday's fourth consecutive record close paired financials with gold miners. Thursday broke the pairing apart, and a cooler U.S. inflation print did not do for Canadian yields what it did for the Fed.

The Government of Canada 10-year yield climbed to 3.75% even though the Bank of Canada has not moved its policy rate since October. The US July CPI report, due at 8:30am ET, is the print that resolves which economic signal wins.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a weak US one are colliding in the bond market, with Wednesday's US inflation print next to referee.

Canada's Q2 GDP and jobs beat argue for BoC firmness. The same morning's US payrolls miss cut September Fed hike odds by half. Same week, opposite direction.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a shock US miss landed the same morning, sharpening the policy debate at both central banks without closing the 137 basis point gap between them.

A week spent showing Hormuz traffic recovering and the Bank of Canada holding steady ended with tanker strikes, a 19-year Treasury yield high, and a TSX decline that tracked neither.

On July 8, twenty-one days after the memorandum that defined June, the United States and Iran resumed open conflict. WTI round-tripped from a five-month low back above eighty-five dollars, Warsh's Fed sent long yields to a nineteen-year high, and the Strait of Hormuz closed the month at its worst traffic reading of the war.

The TSX, the S&P 500, oil and the Canadian dollar all finished higher Friday. Gold, the number both the Behavioural and Tax and Wealth Desks led with this morning, was the exception, and the vessel data the Geopolitical Desk cited as evidence of calm reversed just as fast.

Both central banks are looking at the same oil driven inflation shock from the Hormuz conflict. The Bank of Canada sees it fading. Three Federal Reserve members do not.

The VIX gave back the entirety of Wednesday's Fed-and-Iran shock in a single session. The market pricing an actual rate decision did not follow it down.

Three dissents, the most on a single Fed decision since 2016, told markets more than Wednesday's statement did. The Bank of Canada does not meet again until September 2, and the transmission from Wednesday's vote is already reaching Canadian yields.

Fourteen TSX names moved more than a percentage point on Wednesday's session, eight of them lower. In a non-registered account, that is a planning opportunity with a specific 30 day rule attached to it, and it does not wait for December.