The BoC's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings, but the Government of Canada 10-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in the same window, driven by a US bond market the Bank of Canada does not control.

Headline CPI accelerated to 3.0 percent in July while core inflation barely moved, and the Federal Reserve's July minutes showed hawkish sentiment running deeper than the three known dissents.

A hot GDP print, a 3.0 percent headline number and a Fed watching Treasury yields hit 19 year highs all land on Macklem's desk before September 2.

Core inflation has been flat for three months. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 is the number that actually moves Canadian mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada's September 2 decision is likely a formality. The window on either side of it, running through Jackson Hole and the Fed's own September 16 meeting, is where Canadian bond yields are actually being set.

Canada's economy is running hotter than the Bank's own forecast while US inflation cools, and Government of Canada yields are already pricing the difference.

The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings while GDP and employment blow past its own projections. In line US inflation on Wednesday just took away one reason to keep waiting.

The Government of Canada 10-year yield climbed to 3.75% even though the Bank of Canada has not moved its policy rate since October. The US July CPI report, due at 8:30am ET, is the print that resolves which economic signal wins.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a weak US one are colliding in the bond market, with Wednesday's US inflation print next to referee.

Canada's Q2 GDP and jobs beat argue for BoC firmness. The same morning's US payrolls miss cut September Fed hike odds by half. Same week, opposite direction.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a shock US miss landed the same morning, sharpening the policy debate at both central banks without closing the 137 basis point gap between them.

Record export volumes and a weaker loonie both pushed the number higher. The distinction between the two matters for what the data tells the Bank of Canada ahead of its September 2 decision.

May GDP came in three times ahead of Statistics Canada's own flash estimate, and second-quarter growth is now tracking half a point above the Bank of Canada's forecast. Core inflation fell to its lowest level in over five years in the same month, an unusual combination that argues for continuity, not a directional surprise, at the September 2 decision.

Second quarter GDP is tracking a 3.4 percent annualized pace against the Bank of Canada's own forecast of 2.5 percent, a sharp reversal from the first quarter's contraction. The bond market has already priced the consequence for the September 2 decision.

Both central banks are looking at the same oil driven inflation shock from the Hormuz conflict. The Bank of Canada sees it fading. Three Federal Reserve members do not.

Three dissents, the most on a single Fed decision since 2016, told markets more than Wednesday's statement did. The Bank of Canada does not meet again until September 2, and the transmission from Wednesday's vote is already reaching Canadian yields.