Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.

Rising bond yields and a deal-driven drop in Canada's largest oil sands name pushed the S&P/TSX Composite to 35,445.54 on ordinary volume.

Bond markets price multiple hikes after the Bank dropped its appropriate-level language, yet August brought 42,000 job losses and a core inflation wrinkle.

Retail clients have been net sellers of U.S. equities for nine weeks while bond losses sit unrealized, a split behavioural finance described in 1985.

Canadian growth was flat, yet yields pushed toward 4 per cent and the TSX lost four sessions in a row. Friday payrolls showed where the Bank of Canada rate path was really being set.

Equities priced relief on Friday, but Treasury yields and USD/CAD closed higher, and the currency has done more to separate Canadian portfolio returns since August 26 than any move in the TSX.

The index fell 0.23% on October 1, sits 5.16% below its August high and lost 2.85% in September, as materials and financials fell on higher yields while energy and technology gained.

The Government of Canada 2-year yield closed near 3.26% on October 1 against a 2.25% policy rate held for seven straight decisions, and traders priced an October hike near a coin flip in mid-September.

The VIX closed at 16.39, 5.4 points below its 25-year October average, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002.

WTI crude rose from $69.50 to $89.38 between June 30 and September 29 while USD/CAD moved from 1.4210 to 1.4188, and the widening gap between US and Canadian two-year yields tracks the currency far more closely than oil does.

Headline CPI reached the ceiling of the 1% to 3% control range in August on gasoline, while core measures sit near 2% and July GDP was flat. September CPI on October 19 frames the decision.

The prescribed rate stays at 3% from October 1 to December 31, half its early 2024 peak. The rate on a spousal or family trust loan is fixed on the day the loan is made, and the interest is due by January 30.

Construction and utilities offset manufacturing and retail in July, August is tracking a 0.2% gain, and three bank economics teams read the Bank of Canada risk differently.

A family loan made by December 31 locks in 3% for life, the Government of Canada 10-year yield is near 4%, and the January 30 interest deadline falls on a Saturday.

A sale on September 29 settles October 1 and restricts repurchase through October 31, while the federal tax value of the loss is smaller than the single-day move in gold on Monday.

Headline inflation sits at the top of the 1% to 3% range because gasoline is up 22.8%, and the gap between that energy signal and the rate path is where the October 28 decision lands.