Today's Briefing

Markets price about an 81% chance of a move to 2.50%, yet the core measures the Bank prefers sit below 2% and Canada has lost 110,000 jobs in two months. The Monetary Policy Report has to say which signal wins.

Bill C-30 received Royal Assent on June 19. The base CPP rate falls to 9.5% on January 1, 2027, and the Home Buyers' Plan repayment grace period stretches from two years to five for withdrawals made through December 31, 2028.

Gasoline is up 27.8% year over year while the rest of the basket is rising 2.2%. Research on household expectations suggests the pump price, not the CPI average, is what people anchor to.

The oil shock reached Canadian markets through the Bank of Canada decision on October 28, not through earnings, and the gap between Brent and the TSX opened in five sessions.

Brent gained 6.2% this week and the TSX lost 1.1%. The connector is October 28, when the Bank of Canada is priced to hike and the Federal Reserve is priced to hold.

The TSX fell 3.6% and recovered 3.7% in 20 sessions, and the investor who checked on the wrong day only felt the first half.

No personal tax measure is confirmed for the budget, so Dec. 30, March 1 and a 50% inclusion rate are the dates and numbers to plan on.

The gap between headline CPI and CPI-trim has moved from negative 0.5 points in February to 1.3 points in September, and the Oct. 28 decision turns on how it closes.

Four vessels transited on Oct. 18 against 85 on a typical day, and Brent above US$110 reaches Canadian clients through earnings, fuel costs and the Oct. 28 rate decision.