HDQ
FRANÇAIS Waiting List
Vol. 1  ·  No. 583
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Today's Briefing
The Bond Market Split Its Own Story Today, and Only One Half Survives Tomorrow's CPI
Daily Thread
The Bond Market Split Its Own Story Today, and Only One Half Survives Tomorrow's CPI
Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.
Sep 10, 2026 6 min Read →
entity:bocentity:fedentity:wtientity:cadentity:goc-10y
TSX Falls to a Five-Week Low as Broad Selling Outweighs the Oil Rally's Support
Market
TSX Falls to a Five-Week Low as Broad Selling Outweighs the Oil Rally's Support
The composite closed at 35,906.56 Wednesday, down 0.6% and in its fourth decline in five sessions, even as WTI crude climbed toward $100 on the tanker war.
Sep 10 6 min Read →
The Tanker War Sent Oil Up 18%. The Canadian Dollar's Muted Response Is the Signal to Watch
Geopolitical
The Tanker War Sent Oil Up 18%. The Canadian Dollar's Muted Response Is the Signal to Watch
WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.
Sep 10 5 min Read →
Recent News
Economy Oil's Post-Decision Surge Is Testing the Risk the Bank of Canada Just Flagged
The Bank held at 2.25% on September 2 and named gasoline-driven inflation as the reason to stay cautious. WTI has moved 7% higher since, ahead of the CPI print that lands before the October decision.
Sep 10 5 min
Tax & Wealth The Capital Gains Hike That Never Happened Still Cost Someone Real Money
Ottawa scrapped the capital gains inclusion rate increase eighteen months ago, and this week's revenue data shows exactly what the clients who acted on it before the withdrawal gave up.
Sep 10 5 min
Behavioural Recency Bias Is Pulling Clients Into the Energy Rally at the Worst Possible Entry Point
WTI is up 18% in thirteen sessions as the tanker war escalates, and the same headlines pulling clients toward energy are the pattern Barber and Odean’s research says loses money.
Sep 10 5 min
Daily Thread Oil Topped $100 and the Fed Priced In a Hike. Canada's Bond Market Shrugged.
A war escalation and a trade fight pulled Canadian portfolios in opposite directions today. The Government of Canada 10-year yield did not move enough to say which one the bond market believes.
Sep 9 5 min
Market A Blowout US Jobs Report Pushed Fed Hike Odds to 60%. Tuesday's Selloff Was Canadian Bond Yields Catching Up
The Dow fell 505 points Tuesday as bond markets kept repricing Friday's jobs report. Government of Canada yields moved with it, but the Canadian dollar strengthened anyway, and that split is the real story.
Sep 9 6 min
Geopolitical The Houthi Strikes on Saudi Oil Facilities Just Widened a Six-Month War From a Chokepoint to a Supply Source
WTI crude closed at $92.72 Tuesday after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck three Saudi Aramco facilities, and the mechanism that changed is more consequential for Canadian portfolios than the price level itself.
Sep 9 6 min
Economy Wage Growth Just Hit a Nine-Year Low, and Headline Inflation Is Running at 3%. The Bank of Canada Faces Its Hardest Read Yet
Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August as wage growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2017, even as tariff-driven gasoline costs pushed headline inflation to 3%. The two numbers are telling the Bank of Canada opposite things.
Sep 9 6 min
Tax & Wealth The 3% Prescribed Rate Has Held for Six Quarters, and the Window to Lock It In Is Narrowing
Canada’s new retaliatory tariffs and the Bank of Canada’s inflation warning raise the odds the prescribed rate rises before the mechanism that fixes an income-splitting loan’s rate for life resets it higher.
Sep 9 6 min
Behavioural Investors Are More Bearish and More Bullish Than Usual, and Tuesday's TSX Move Shows Why
AAII's latest sentiment survey shows both readings above their historical averages, and the TSX's Tuesday decline did not come from the headline most investors will blame for it.
Sep 9 5 min
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