Canadian growth was flat, yet yields pushed toward 4 per cent and the TSX lost four sessions in a row. Friday payrolls showed where the Bank of Canada rate path was really being set.

WTI closed at $89.38 on September 29, 12.8% below its September 10 close, as Saudi pipeline repairs and reserve releases outweighed a rejected ceasefire proposal and a growing US naval presence.

WTI crude rose from $69.50 to $89.38 between June 30 and September 29 while USD/CAD moved from 1.4210 to 1.4188, and the widening gap between US and Canadian two-year yields tracks the currency far more closely than oil does.

WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.

Crude rose 3.1% and the TSX fell, but the clearest signal was gold dropping 2.9%: a haven priced against a near 5.2% yield stops behaving like one.

WTI fell roughly 5 percent this week and Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs, but neither move explains what happened to the TSX or the loonie.

Five desks, one throughline. A 175 basis point gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada moved the currency, the bond market, the mining sector and client conversations this week, while oil told a stranger story of its own.

USD/CAD closed at 1.4138 Thursday, its weakest level for the loonie since early August, as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a steady Bank of Canada pulled further apart.

Commercial transit through the Strait fell to about one percent of normal this week, yet WTI crude sits more than ten dollars below its September peak. The gap between the disruption and the price is the story.

A Hormuz de-escalation report lifted oil and calmed equities this afternoon. It did nothing for the Canadian dollar, because the real story today is in the bond market, not the Persian Gulf.

The composite index closed at 35,933.27 Wednesday, down 402.34 points as base metal shares reversed the same sector gains that drove a 326 point rally Tuesday, while energy names cushioned the decline as oil held near $92.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases, and Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $103.61 on the news rather than falling, because the mechanism connecting that offer to Canadian energy portfolios runs through whether the ceasefire actually holds, not through the headline alone.

The TSX Composite closed at 36,228.74 Tuesday, up 0.61 per cent, rebounding sharply from a September 16 low as technology and base metals names offset a sixth straight session of falling oil.

WTI crude has fallen for six straight sessions, from a peak of $105.83 on September 15 to $90.56 Wednesday, on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a Saudi pipeline workaround, well ahead of any confirmed change to Strait of Hormuz shipping.

Six straight sessions of falling crude are undercutting the fuel-cost case for further Bank of Canada hikes, while a materials rally reveals where Canadian investors are actually positioning.

WTI crude gained nearly 20 percent as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. The TSX energy sector gained barely 2 percent on the same day.