The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 19 to 3 over the past week as President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the neutral party brokering a shipping deal, introducing a new failure mode for the crisis.

Toronto retreated from a record close on tech weakness and soft US data. The overnight tape shows a risk-off tilt across commodities and volatility as the Hormuz ceasefire formally expires today.

The interim ceasefire and the sanctioned toll authority's 60-day waiver both lapse today, and neither expiry resolves how oil is actually still moving through the strait.

A blowout jobs report pushed Canadian equities to a fresh high. A widening Iran conflict pushed oil and gold to their own. Friday's US retail sales miss cracked one of those stories without touching the other.

Friday's sector rotation mirrored Thursday's record close in reverse, and oil's refusal to react to stalled Hormuz talks confirms the story has moved from supply to demand.

Financials and technology carried the index to 36,759.29 while energy lagged and breadth stayed tight, even as bond yields hit a two year high.

Trump and Iran's foreign minister traded accusations over control of the strait, but the price move came from the IEA and OPEC's demand forecasts, not the conflict itself.

Brent snapped a six session rally Thursday, not because anything resolved in the Strait of Hormuz, but because a genuine forecasting split between the world's two largest energy bodies finally showed up in price.

A CENTCOM missile strike, a deadly Houthi attack in the Red Sea, and a Trump demand for war reparations are running on one track this week. Advanced talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are running on another. Oil is pricing both at once.

Deal-hope optimism sent the TSX to a financials-led record while Canada's 10-year yield spiked to a 26-month high on the same day, pricing the same story two different ways.

Strathcona Resources led an 8.74 percent gain on rising Hormuz-driven crude, while Monday's worst performers fell on unrelated company-specific news.

A tanker attack, a Saudi refinery strike and dueling preconditions have Brent near a five-week high, right as the Bank of Canada heads into its September decision.

WTI and Brent jumped roughly 4 percent as Washington and Tehran each pointed to the naval blockade as the actual obstacle, a sharper claim than either side has made in weeks. Gold barely moved and the Canadian dollar stayed flat, leaving the loonie without the lift its own yield advantage and oil's rally would normally provide.

Last week's oil selloff assumed a Hormuz deal was close. Iran's weekend preconditions confirm it is not, and the chain runs straight back to the Bank of Canada's inflation math.

Friday's gold and oil decoupling was real. Assuming it holds without the Hormuz deal actually closing is the availability heuristic at work.