Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.

The Hormuz risk premium has shifted from missing barrels to attacks on ships, and the Canadian consequences run through the loonie, the CPI and a C$5.7 billion oil sands deal.

Estimates of oil moving through the strait range from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day. Iran offered a seven-day reopening, Washington rejected the sequencing, and Brent moved less than 3% on either headline.

Qatar is carrying an amended proposal, President Trump expects a deal only after the November midterms, and Brent settled at $102.59 after a 13% September gain.

A 50 percent US tariff on Canadian goods took effect the same month Brent crude spiked above $108 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and the two shocks are pulling the same index in opposite directions.

A Hormuz de-escalation report lifted oil and calmed equities this afternoon. It did nothing for the Canadian dollar, because the real story today is in the bond market, not the Persian Gulf.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases, and Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $103.61 on the news rather than falling, because the mechanism connecting that offer to Canadian energy portfolios runs through whether the ceasefire actually holds, not through the headline alone.

The Fed hike case is running on U.S. demand while the Bank of Canada hike case is running on crude, which turns a Hormuz peace deal into a double negative for the Canadian dollar.

Thursday's Fed relief rally reversed within one session, and the asset that should have fallen alongside rising bond yields did the opposite instead.

Two central banks read the same energy-driven inflation data this week and reached opposite conclusions about whether it will last. Thursday sided with the one that held.

Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor and Cenovus climbed roughly 2% apiece as Brent extended its August rally, while Royal Bank, TD and the gold miners gave back ground on rising bond yields.

Brent has risen 4.5% in two sessions after the U.S. struck Iranian positions accused of preparing to mine the strait itself, not just harass shipping, and that distinction matters for how far the Canadian energy trade can run.

Constructive Oman-Iran talks pushed oil to a one-month low this week. A new US-Iran exchange over sanctions erased the move within two days.

Friday's TSX gain was narrower than the headline number suggested. This morning's currency move is the cleaner signal for how seriously markets are taking the trade dispute.

The Treasury unveils its sanctions package today. The chain that actually matters runs through Beijing, not Tehran, and the market is already pricing that in.

The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.