Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.

The Hormuz risk premium has shifted from missing barrels to attacks on ships, and the Canadian consequences run through the loonie, the CPI and a C$5.7 billion oil sands deal.

Canadian growth was flat, yet yields pushed toward 4 per cent and the TSX lost four sessions in a row. Friday payrolls showed where the Bank of Canada rate path was really being set.

WTI closed at $89.38 on September 29, 12.8% below its September 10 close, as Saudi pipeline repairs and reserve releases outweighed a rejected ceasefire proposal and a growing US naval presence.

Estimates of oil moving through the strait range from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day. Iran offered a seven-day reopening, Washington rejected the sequencing, and Brent moved less than 3% on either headline.

Headline CPI reached the ceiling of the 1% to 3% control range in August on gasoline, while core measures sit near 2% and July GDP was flat. September CPI on October 19 frames the decision.

Qatar is carrying an amended proposal, President Trump expects a deal only after the November midterms, and Brent settled at $102.59 after a 13% September gain.

WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.

Headline inflation sits at the top of the 1% to 3% range because gasoline is up 22.8%, and the gap between that energy signal and the rate path is where the October 28 decision lands.

Crude rose 3.1% and the TSX fell, but the clearest signal was gold dropping 2.9%: a haven priced against a near 5.2% yield stops behaving like one.

A 50 percent US tariff on Canadian goods took effect the same month Brent crude spiked above $108 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and the two shocks are pulling the same index in opposite directions.

Headline CPI held at 3.0 percent in August for a second straight month, but the measures the Bank of Canada actually watches tell a calmer story, and that gap explains a seventh consecutive rate hold.

University of Michigan sentiment fell to a four-month low in September while the TSX Composite gained 19 percent over the same year, a divergence behavioural finance traces to which information stays most vivid in memory.

WTI fell roughly 5 percent this week and Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs, but neither move explains what happened to the TSX or the loonie.

Five desks, one throughline. A 175 basis point gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada moved the currency, the bond market, the mining sector and client conversations this week, while oil told a stranger story of its own.

Commercial transit through the Strait fell to about one percent of normal this week, yet WTI crude sits more than ten dollars below its September peak. The gap between the disruption and the price is the story.