Gold miners, not trade negotiators, drove Friday's gains, and the currency signal underneath it tells advisors which crisis is actually live heading into the weekend.

The TSX Composite closed nearly unchanged Thursday even as banks fell and gold miners rallied sharply, with today's session set to turn on whether the US and Canada finalize a trade deal before tonight's tariff deadline.

A 50 percent US tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods is due to take effect at midnight unless a trade deal is finalized, and USD/CAD has spent two weeks pricing the outcome ahead of the headlines.

The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.

A Treasury buyback and a tariff truce produced a clean risk-on session across equities, oil and the loonie. Gold rose more than all of them, and that gap is the story.

Banks and miners fell, energy rose, and a semiconductor selloff that started in the US spread to South Korea overnight.

Canada's overall exports to the US fell 5.8 percent. The two disputed categories fell 22 and 81 percent, and that gap is the entire legal case.

Trump paused Section 338 tariffs three hours before the deadline. The market is pricing it as resolved. It isn't.

A genuine Strait of Hormuz escalation and a fresh 19 year high in long yields hit the tape on the same afternoon. Only one of them moved gold.

Energy and gold names had a strong Monday. Technology and rate-sensitive names didn't. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest close since 2007 is what decides which story wins Tuesday.

Financials and technology carried the index to 36,759.29 while energy lagged and breadth stayed tight, even as bond yields hit a two year high.

Wednesday's record TSX session came with a 12 percent single stock surge and a near 5 percent single stock decline on the same day. The sector rotation underneath the headline number is the more durable signal.

Canadian energy and industrial strength pushed the TSX composite to 36,475.92 on Tuesday, even as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed lower on fading Hormuz optimism.

Strathcona Resources led an 8.74 percent gain on rising Hormuz-driven crude, while Monday's worst performers fell on unrelated company-specific news.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a weak US one are colliding in the bond market, with Wednesday's US inflation print next to referee.

WTI and Brent jumped roughly 4 percent as Washington and Tehran each pointed to the naval blockade as the actual obstacle, a sharper claim than either side has made in weeks. Gold barely moved and the Canadian dollar stayed flat, leaving the loonie without the lift its own yield advantage and oil's rally would normally provide.