Canadian growth was flat, yet yields pushed toward 4 per cent and the TSX lost four sessions in a row. Friday payrolls showed where the Bank of Canada rate path was really being set.

The 3-month yield fell and the 30-year yield rose after the August PCE, while the US minus Canada 10-year spread and USD/CAD kept climbing.

A family loan made by December 31 locks in 3% for life, the Government of Canada 10-year yield is near 4%, and the January 30 interest deadline falls on a Saturday.

A sale on September 29 settles October 1 and restricts repurchase through October 31, while the federal tax value of the loss is smaller than the single-day move in gold on Monday.

TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,800.89, up 94 points, even as the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.18 percent, its highest since the financial crisis, and Canadian yields touched a 34-month high before easing.

Five desks, one throughline. A 175 basis point gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada moved the currency, the bond market, the mining sector and client conversations this week, while oil told a stranger story of its own.

Government of Canada 10-year yields reached 3.95 percent on Thursday, matching an August high, as markets absorb a widening gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada that has no clear resolution before the two banks next meet.

A Hormuz de-escalation report lifted oil and calmed equities this afternoon. It did nothing for the Canadian dollar, because the real story today is in the bond market, not the Persian Gulf.

Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.

Thursday's Fed relief rally reversed within one session, and the asset that should have fallen alongside rising bond yields did the opposite instead.

The safe-haven trade that should have followed a physical bypass shutdown around the Strait of Hormuz never arrived, and the reason points to Wednesday's rate decision, not the war.

A weekend tanker strike and a damaged Saudi pipeline pushed WTI toward $103, but stocks, gold and the Canadian dollar all moved the other way, pointing to Wednesday''s Fed decision as the real driver.

The oil-driven CPI shock and the TSX afternoon rebound on Friday are not two separate stories. They are the same number, working in opposite directions inside one trading session, while the Bank of Canada arrives at the identical conclusion through its own tariff-driven channel.

Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

The Dow fell 505 points Tuesday as bond markets kept repricing Friday's jobs report. Government of Canada yields moved with it, but the Canadian dollar strengthened anyway, and that split is the real story.

Tuesday's retaliatory tariffs, not the widening Iran conflict, finally moved the yield that Fed dovishness and a historic jobs miss could not.