HDQ
Vol. 1  ·  No. 632
AllMarketGeopoliticalEconomyTax & WealthBehaviouralDaily Thread
Today's Briefing
Recent News
Tax & Wealth The Prescribed Rate Has Not Been This Flat in Four Years
The CRA base rate holds at 3 percent for a sixth straight quarter, and the loans set up now lock that rate in for good.
Sep 22 5 min
Behavioural The Anchoring Bias Behind the Fed Rate Shock
Kahneman and Tversky documented why a two-year cutting narrative does not release its grip just because the Federal Reserve reversed it.
Sep 22 5 min
Daily Thread The Oil Selloff Is Pricing a Hormuz Recovery Iran Says Has Not Happened
Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.
Sep 21 5 min
Market The TSX Closed a Volatile Week at 35,806.65. Energy Was the Only Sector That Actually Held.
The composite fell 67.61 points Friday to cap a week shaped by the Federal Reserve first rate hike since 2023 and a Hormuz-driven swing in oil. Energy was the sole sector to post a weekly gain among the decliners.
Sep 21 6 min
Geopolitical The Strait of Hormuz Priced In a War. This Week It Started Pricing an Exit.
WTI has fallen for four straight sessions as Washington signals openness to talks with Iran at the UN General Assembly. The tanker war that sent oil toward 100 dollars has not ended, but the market is now pricing a chance that it might.
Sep 21 6 min
Economy The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To
The Government of Canada five-year yield has climbed nearly half a point since late August. August CPI shows why the Bank of Canada cannot simply celebrate a flat headline number.
Sep 21 6 min
Tax & Wealth The Prescribed Rate Has Not Moved in Six Quarters. The Bond Market Suggests That Is About to Change
RRSP room jumped to $33,810 for 2026, but the more time-sensitive number is the CRA prescribed rate, still at 3 percent while the yields that set it keep climbing.
Sep 21 6 min
Behavioural The Fear Investors Report and the Fear the Market Is Pricing Have Split
AAII bearish sentiment hit a sixteen-month high the same week the VIX eased back toward its own average. The gap is a live case study in availability bias.
Sep 21 6 min
Weekend Edition The Week the Bank of Canada's Own Rate Stopped Setting Canadian Borrowing Costs
The Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023 while the Bank of Canada held and floated cuts, yet Canadian bond yields kept climbing regardless of which way the Bank leans.
Sep 19 8 min
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