Gold is down 6.1 percent from its August peak even as the Middle East conflict continues, and the mechanism is the Federal Reserve, not the geopolitics.

Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals and Barrick surged as much as 10.5 percent while Canada's five largest banks fell in tandem, and the psychology behind that instinct to chase it deserves more scrutiny than the headline number.

Record first half results and gold ounces sold up 23 percent were not enough to offset a miss on a single consensus figure, the same pattern that hit Barrick two sessions earlier.

A two cent earnings miss overshadowed 50 percent earnings growth, a production beat and a deal that clears the path to an IPO.

Gold miners carried the index to 36,381.23 while banks lagged on BoC risk. Monday's early tape already shows oil reclaiming the leadership gold held Friday.

Shopify's 16.5% surge and a broad gold miner rally carried the index to 36,146.42. Thomson Reuters and Suncor Energy both beat estimates and both closed lower, a split the headline number does not show.

Energy gains booked inside a corporate portfolio this year do not touch this year's tax bill. They determine how much of next year's small business deduction survives, and the window to manage that number closes December 31.

The TSX dropped 0.75% to 35,125 Wednesday as energy and gold miners absorbed a collapsing oil price while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise that hit banks too.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

When geopolitical relief rallies arrive, investors sell their winners and hold their losers. The research explains why, and what it costs.

Gold stayed near $4,500 Tuesday while Canadian miners shed 2% to 6%. The divergence is not a market anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing what it always does: overwriting the correct frame with the most recent one.

The TSX shed 435 points on May 15 as a global bond rout and stalled Hormuz talks punished miners, banks, and rate-sensitive names. Energy was the lone sector standing. The TSX is closed today for Victoria Day. Tuesday opens with April CPI and the Iran NSC meeting outcome landing simultaneously.