Gold is down 6.1 percent from its August peak even as the Middle East conflict continues, and the mechanism is the Federal Reserve, not the geopolitics.

Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals and Barrick surged as much as 10.5 percent while Canada's five largest banks fell in tandem, and the psychology behind that instinct to chase it deserves more scrutiny than the headline number.

Gold miners carried the index to 36,381.23 while banks lagged on BoC risk. Monday's early tape already shows oil reclaiming the leadership gold held Friday.

Shopify's 16.5% surge and a broad gold miner rally carried the index to 36,146.42. Thomson Reuters and Suncor Energy both beat estimates and both closed lower, a split the headline number does not show.

Energy gains booked inside a corporate portfolio this year do not touch this year's tax bill. They determine how much of next year's small business deduction survives, and the window to manage that number closes December 31.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a fresh high on bank and gold-miner strength even as crude oil fell more than 3%, a sector rotation that tells Canadian portfolios more than the day's net index move does.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

When geopolitical relief rallies arrive, investors sell their winners and hold their losers. The research explains why, and what it costs.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.