Gold is down 6.1 percent from its August peak even as the Middle East conflict continues, and the mechanism is the Federal Reserve, not the geopolitics.

Materials stocks led a rebound Wednesday even as the Iran conflict widened, and the index remains within striking distance of the record it set three weeks ago.

A two cent earnings miss overshadowed 50 percent earnings growth, a production beat and a deal that clears the path to an IPO.

The composite gained 1.63% Tuesday on Hormuz optimism, but the sector-level data shows two different markets trading inside the same session: materials up 4.7% on a safe-haven gold rally, energy down as WTI fell 6.36% on the identical headline.

The S&P/TSX Composite finished the long weekend at 35,226.14, down 0.79 percent on a gold-driven materials selloff and a 11.27 percent TELUS dividend cut. Both the gold price and the oil price that shaped Friday's session have moved since, and not in the same direction.

The index recovered less than half of Wednesday's drop. Energy split on earnings instead of oil, and technology produced the widest spread on the board, a 6.9% winner and a 12.8% loser on the same day.

Anchoring bias explains why investors still expect a safe haven payoff that has not arrived, and the disposition effect is now the more relevant risk in client gold positions.

A single Iran headline pushed oil up and bond yields up at the same time, splitting the index into a clear winner and a clear group of losers underneath a headline decline of just under one percent.

WTI's jump to $74.35 lifted Methanex, South Bow, and ARC Resources more than 4% while HudBay Minerals and Energy Fuels fell over 6%, a split that says more about currency and sub-sector mechanics than about the price of oil itself.

The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.