Oil above $100 has pushed many Canadian energy and commodity positions into significant unrealized gains. With the Bank of Canada on hold and the inclusion rate debate unresolved, the planning question for advisors is whether clients should be acting on those gains now.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade. Three converging files — Iran, Hormuz, and CUSMA — all run through the same meeting. The outcome affects Canadian energy, Canadian trade, and the Bank of Canada's rate path.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal. The channel that carries 20% of global oil remains largely closed, and Brent crude above $94 has specific portfolio implications that go beyond energy sector exposure.

When dramatic, vivid events dominate the news, the availability heuristic causes investors to overweight recent and visible risks and underweight gradual, probabilistic ones. The Hormuz crisis is producing exactly this pattern, and the portfolio decisions it is generating are systematically predictable.

Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal sent WTI back to $98 this afternoon. The morning's Economy Desk established oil as the swing variable in the BoC's June 10 decision. Carney's "fortress North America" offer from Saturday puts Canadian energy on the negotiating table at the exact moment elevated oil is threatening a rate hike. Two frameworks, one sector, opposite implications.

Oil's elevated floor is holding energy names aloft while U.S. equities close at records. The divergence between the two markets tells the story of two very different risk calculations.

A technical ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has cooled the worst-case scenario. But the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in market history, and oil prices have a floor the market has not fully priced.

Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.

A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.

Oil's surge since late February has generated significant unrealized capital gains in non-registered accounts. With the 50% inclusion rate confirmed for 2026 and a Hormuz resolution potentially on the horizon, the window for managing those gains is narrowing.

Cenovus posted an 83% profit jump. Suncor beat expectations. Both fell roughly 4%. The TSX is opening flat against record highs in the US. The market is not confused. It is pricing a specific future.

Washington and Tehran are reportedly within 48 hours of agreeing on a preliminary memorandum of understanding. What it would and would not resolve, and what it means for the oil price in every Canadian portfolio.

Oil is dropping 3-4% on Iran peace hopes and equity futures are rising. History says this is the moment investors make their worst moves.

S&P 500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%. Best weekly gain since November, snapping a five-week losing streak. S&P closed Friday at 6,816.89, Nasdaq at 22,902.89, Dow at 47,916.57.