The Hormuz risk premium has shifted from missing barrels to attacks on ships, and the Canadian consequences run through the loonie, the CPI and a C$5.7 billion oil sands deal.

WTI closed at $89.38 on September 29, 12.8% below its September 10 close, as Saudi pipeline repairs and reserve releases outweighed a rejected ceasefire proposal and a growing US naval presence.

Estimates of oil moving through the strait range from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day. Iran offered a seven-day reopening, Washington rejected the sequencing, and Brent moved less than 3% on either headline.

Qatar is carrying an amended proposal, President Trump expects a deal only after the November midterms, and Brent settled at $102.59 after a 13% September gain.

WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.

Commercial transit through the Strait fell to about one percent of normal this week, yet WTI crude sits more than ten dollars below its September peak. The gap between the disruption and the price is the story.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases, and Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $103.61 on the news rather than falling, because the mechanism connecting that offer to Canadian energy portfolios runs through whether the ceasefire actually holds, not through the headline alone.

The Fed hike case is running on U.S. demand while the Bank of Canada hike case is running on crude, which turns a Hormuz peace deal into a double negative for the Canadian dollar.

WTI crude has fallen for six straight sessions, from a peak of $105.83 on September 15 to $90.56 Wednesday, on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a Saudi pipeline workaround, well ahead of any confirmed change to Strait of Hormuz shipping.

WTI crude gained nearly 20 percent as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. The TSX energy sector gained barely 2 percent on the same day.

Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.

WTI has fallen for four straight sessions as Washington signals openness to talks with Iran at the UN General Assembly. The tanker war that sent oil toward 100 dollars has not ended, but the market is now pricing a chance that it might.

Trump says the Iran war may be nearing an end even as a new front opens between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with a damaged pipeline threatening 4 percent of global oil supply. For Canadian portfolios, the mechanism runs in two directions at once.

Tanker traffic through the corridor has collapsed to a fraction of its usual volume since fighting between US and Iranian forces resumed, and the market has already priced in most of the disruption without a full shutdown.

WTI crude near $105 a barrel is no longer only a Market Desk story. It is a direct input into a Federal Reserve decision markets call almost certain, and Canadian energy exposure is the main channel back to portfolios.

The Saudi East-West pipeline was Riyadh's answer to the Hormuz closure, a 4 to 5 million barrel-a-day route to the Red Sea that did not need the Strait at all. Drone strikes shut it down September 10 and 11. The mechanism from there to Canadian portfolios is direct and already visible.