WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.

WTI fell roughly 5 percent this week and Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs, but neither move explains what happened to the TSX or the loonie.

The TSX Composite closed at 36,228.74 Tuesday, up 0.61 per cent, rebounding sharply from a September 16 low as technology and base metals names offset a sixth straight session of falling oil.

The composite fell 67.61 points Friday to cap a week shaped by the Federal Reserve first rate hike since 2023 and a Hormuz-driven swing in oil. Energy was the sole sector to post a weekly gain among the decliners.

Tanker traffic through the corridor has collapsed to a fraction of its usual volume since fighting between US and Iranian forces resumed, and the market has already priced in most of the disruption without a full shutdown.

Energy strength from the Hormuz-driven oil rally is fighting a three-week slide in base metals, financials, and technology, with a near-certain Federal Reserve hike this afternoon adding a fresh cross-current.

WTI crude near $105 a barrel is no longer only a Market Desk story. It is a direct input into a Federal Reserve decision markets call almost certain, and Canadian energy exposure is the main channel back to portfolios.

The index closed at 35,703.47 on September 14, down from a late-August high of 36,957.63, despite Canadian Natural Resources, Tourmaline and Suncor all posting gains through the same stretch. Technology weakness and a jittery run-up to Wednesday's Fed decision are absorbing more than energy is contributing.

The Saudi East-West pipeline was Riyadh's answer to the Hormuz closure, a 4 to 5 million barrel-a-day route to the Red Sea that did not need the Strait at all. Drone strikes shut it down September 10 and 11. The mechanism from there to Canadian portfolios is direct and already visible.

WTI crude closed at $102.55 on September 13, the day an Iranian vessel was struck near Qeshm, and the chain from the Strait of Hormuz to Canadian portfolios runs through gasoline prices, energy equities, and the currency.

The Bank of Canada held for a seventh straight decision while Fed hike odds climbed past seventy per cent, both reacting to the same barrel of oil that also pulled the TSX to a six-week low even as Canadian energy names rallied around it.

WTI crude closed at $102.48 on September 10, up 25 per cent since mid-August, as U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian retaliation against ships using unauthorized routes have cut Hormuz traffic by more than a third.

The composite closed at 35,906.56 Wednesday, down 0.6% and in its fourth decline in five sessions, even as WTI crude climbed toward $100 on the tanker war.

WTI crude closed at $92.72 Tuesday after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck three Saudi Aramco facilities, and the mechanism that changed is more consequential for Canadian portfolios than the price level itself.

WTI is on its sixth straight higher session heading into the Tuesday open, U.S. futures are lower on Middle East and rate uncertainty, and the split puts Canadian energy names on the right side of both stories at once.

China alone is now taking more than 200,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude as Gulf supply risk mounts, and Trans Mountain has nowhere left to put the rest of the demand it is attracting.