WTI's slide to $81.04 marks a genuine, diplomacy-driven retreat from July's highs, not a fading headline. In the same stretch, the probability of a Fed hike tomorrow rose instead of falling, and a same-day strike claim on Saudi Arabia's Hormuz bypass pipeline shows the tail risk the market is discounting never actually left.

CME FedWatch prices roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike Wednesday, nearly unchanged from last Thursday's peak despite oil's steepest three-session retreat since the war began. Canada's own inflation picture is calmer, but Canadian yields are not insulated from Wednesday's outcome.

WTI fell more than eight per cent Monday, its sharpest single session drop since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began in February. Gold, which has traded as the same war premium trade for five months, barely moved. The Fed's Wednesday decision was already repriced by the gap between them.

The Federal Reserve's July meeting had become a genuine contest, with rate hike odds climbing on energy driven inflation fears. A seven per cent oil price collapse Monday morning arrives less than 48 hours before the vote, the same day the Bank of Canada's own deliberations summary from its sixth consecutive hold is released.

Between Wednesday's TSX record and Friday's oil reversal, a bigger story took shape: the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are now pulling in opposite directions, and a fifty percent tariff lands in the gap between their next two decisions.

A third oil chokepoint opened overnight in Kazakhstan and WTI fell almost five percent anyway, on reports that Pakistan and China are trying to revive US-Iran talks. The ten year Treasury yield did not move off Thursday's cycle high, and that gap is the story heading into next week's Fed decision.

Market-implied odds of a July 29 Fed hike spiked past 46% and have since fallen under 17%, but oil is still climbing, and that leaves Governor Macklem facing the same inflation calculus with less certainty about what Washington does first.

The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting even as headline inflation eased, while a Federal Reserve under a new chair who refuses to signal its next move heads into its own decision next week.

This morning's five desks read Tuesday as a mediation signal cooling a stable, monthlong standoff. The afternoon's real move came from a pipeline attack on the Caspian coast that none of them saw coming, and it is what actually broke gold's flat trade.

Markets are pricing a December Fed increase with rising conviction as energy driven inflation persists south of the border, but Canada's own data point the other way, and the July 29 meeting is the first real test of the repricing.

Five days after the July 15 Monetary Policy Report built its inflation forecast on that assumption, a weekend that pushed the conflict's confirmed U.S. death toll to 17 sent WTI to a fresh high, testing the one number the Bank said would determine whether this hold turns into something else.

Gold's failure to rally on the biggest escalation of the US-Iran war in weeks is not a fluke. It is the clearest sign yet that oil-driven inflation fear, not geopolitical fear, is now setting the price of the safe-haven trade, and Canadian portfolios showed the same pattern in miniature on Friday.

A live production-risk event hit Iran's main export terminal this morning. The safe-haven trade that should have followed did not arrive, and the reason runs through four other desks.

The Bank of Canada and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh both leaned hawkish this week citing energy-driven inflation, but U.S. CPI has already cooled to 3.5 per cent from a 4.2 per cent May peak, and Canada's own core measures barely moved.

June's inflation cooling to 3.5 percent, the number both central banks leaned on Wednesday, was driven by a ceasefire-era gasoline decline that ended July 8. WTI has already priced the difference, posting its largest single-session jump of the disruption six days later.

The Bank of Canada announces at 9:45 a.m. Eastern with markets pricing a near-certain hold. Fifteen minutes later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces the Senate to explain a committee that grew more hawkish in June even as US inflation cooled. Both are being asked to price the same barrel of oil.