Iran's overnight missile attack on US forces sent WTI crude surging as much as six percent. Gold, the asset built for exactly this kind of shock, opened lower and recovered only to roughly where it started. The split reveals how investors are pricing the same war through two separate ledgers.

WTI's third straight losing session dragged gold down with it Tuesday, ending Monday's brief decoupling. Research on the disposition effect predicts how clients who bought last week's peak will respond, and it is not by selling.

Houthi missiles struck two Saudi Aramco refineries Saturday, the first direct hit on the kingdom's oil infrastructure in four years. The bigger price move came from something with no pictures at all: a quiet, unannounced pause in US strikes on Iran.

Wednesday's record TSX close and Thursday's reversal, paired with gold's drop as Brent crossed $100, show why recent and vivid moves distort judgment more than the data itself.

Eleven straight nights of strikes on Iran have not stopped the TSX from climbing toward its 52-week high, and the reason why should concern anyone extrapolating the trend forward.

The TSX's sharpest rebound in weeks came one session after its worst close in eight, and the clients who reacted to Monday's headlines are the ones who missed it.

Anchoring bias explains why investors still expect a safe haven payoff that has not arrived, and the disposition effect is now the more relevant risk in client gold positions.

A single conciliatory sentence from Tehran erased most of a four dollar intraday move in WTI crude on the same weekend the conflict's confirmed U.S. death toll rose to 17, while gold barely moved at all.

A stock that had risen more than 230 per cent since April drew retail buyers chasing the momentum, even as the CEO and chief legal officer filed to sell shares in the two weeks before Thursday's reversal. The research on what a run of gains does to investor judgment explains both sides of the trade.

Gold fell to $4,036 Thursday as WTI climbed past $80 on the same Hormuz conflict, and the split reveals how investors sort one event into two inconsistent risk buckets.

Four months of repeated escalation have retrained how markets price this conflict, and the VIX's shrinking reactions show exactly when investors stopped treating each new headline as news.

A reinstated Hormuz blockade sent Brent crude sharply higher, but equities, bonds and the loonie priced in almost none of it, a pattern behavioural finance recognises as habituation rather than calm.

As the US and Iran traded a fourth wave of strikes and Tehran declared the strait closed again, gold slid to a two week low. The move exposes which narrative investors are actually pricing.

Iran's widening conflict dominated headlines Thursday, but the data that will actually move the Bank of Canada on July 15 landed quietly this morning. Why the vivid story crowds out the relevant one, and what the labour market has actually been saying for twelve months.

Thursday's escalation was larger than Wednesday's by CENTCOM's own count, and equity futures rose anyway. The pattern has a name in behavioural finance, and it is worth naming before the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision.

The safe-haven trade clients expect broke down exactly when the news looked most alarming, and the availability heuristic explains why they will not see it coming next time.