WTI's 3% drop on Iran deal proximity is not the Market Desk story today. It is the Economy Desk story for July 15, and the Bank of Canada's communications framework has not caught up yet.

Trump's late-session pivot toward an Iran deal collapsed the inflation risk premium that had been holding the Bank of Canada frozen at 2.25% for five straight decisions. What the market is now pricing is not the same BoC that spoke on Wednesday.

The language shift nobody noticed: why Macklem's "near-term" replaced "immediate" at exactly the moment WTI hit $90 on a seventh consecutive inventory draw.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

Two scenarios published this morning by the OECD do something the Bank of Canada has been careful not to do: they put explicit numbers on the difference between looking through the oil shock and failing to. That gap is now visible in the GoC 5-year yield. The mortgage market has not caught up.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

Oil bounced 3-4% on Khamenei's uranium edict, but Canadian energy stocks barely moved. That divergence tells you exactly what the market is betting on -- and what happens if it's wrong.