WTI is up about a percent from Monday's four week low after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. The Bank of Canada's blackout for the July 15 decision started this morning, before either the attack or the market's tepid reaction to it could enter the public record.

Physical shipping through the strait has already caught up to what this morning's Geopolitical piece called a lagging recovery, but a fresh OPEC+ supply increase, not the August toll dispute, is what pulled Canadian energy names down today.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

Oil and gold moved in opposite directions again Monday. The morning desks each explained half of it. Together they show the war premium and the rate premium have stopped moving as one trade.

WTI is back to pre-conflict levels and Canadian core inflation held near 2% through the entire energy spike, yet the loonie just hit a one-year low. Those are not three stories. They are one.

May's PCE hit its hottest annual pace since the Iran war began, and gold rallied on the news. The reason has nothing to do with the AI trade this morning's Market Desk leaned on, and everything to do with what the print did not do: come in hotter than feared.

Oil's slide to its lowest level since before the Hormuz disruption began is calming the same bond market that makes the CRA's prescribed rate loan attractive. CAD is not getting any of the relief.

WTI has fallen 33 percent in five weeks on the Hormuz unwind, but a currency that will not rally is taking back part of the relief before it reaches the pump.

Monday's selloffs in oil and gold read as one Iran story. They are two separate mechanisms landing on the same trading day, and only one of them touches the number that actually matters for advisors this autumn.

Wednesday’s signing in Versailles was priced as resolution. Friday’s cancelled follow-up, and where oil bounced when it happened, says the reopening is a negotiation, not a finish line.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

Falling oil was supposed to be the good news story today. By 2pm it had become the second blade of a two-sided squeeze on the Canadian dollar, and almost nobody framed it that way.

Oil collapsed 4% on the ceasefire. The five-year GoC barely moved. That gap is the most important signal in the Canadian market today, and nobody is talking about it.

Oil down 5.5%, the 5-year yield at 3.01%, and the inflation constraint evaporating in real time. But the Fed meeting Wednesday changes the calculus before Macklem can act.