WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

Trump says a deal is largely negotiated. Iran says the description is incomplete and inconsistent with reality. WTI at $90 is the market's verdict on who is right.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is inverting the recency bias that geopolitical volatility built over three months. Advisors who understand the mechanism can stop the second mistake before the first one is even recovered.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

Iran struck Kuwait International Airport on June 3, suspended peace talks, and traded strikes with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through one variable: whether these escalations threaten the Hormuz supply disruption that has underpinned the energy re-rating since February 28.

WTI at $95 implies the market believes the Iran ceasefire holds and Hormuz reopens. The events of the past 72 hours suggest that confidence is misplaced. The gap between what is priced and what is possible is the risk Canadian energy portfolios are carrying right now.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day MOU on May 28 that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has not yet signed it. And even a signed deal does not restore oil supply: Pentagon briefings put mine-clearing at up to six months, and Middle East producers need three to four months to restart shut-in capacity.

Five days, three simultaneous frameworks, and a TSX that ended the week higher than it started. What changed in the analytical picture, and what advisors need to carry into June.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.