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Vol. 1  ·  No. 689
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314 articles
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Tagged: stance:base-case   Clear
Coverage: stance:base case
314articles
Apr 1, 2026first coverage
Oct 5, 2026most recent
Tax & Wealth (85)Economy (67)Market (83)Geopolitical (24)Weekend Edition (3)Behavioural (52)
Tax & Wealth
Ontario's Small Business Rate Just Dropped, and the Real Planning Question Is Dividend Timing
The combined federal-Ontario small business tax rate fell from 12.2% to 11.2% today, but the personal dividend credit that offsets it will not adjust until January 2027. What the six-month gap means for incorporated clients, and who needs to prorate.
Jul 10, 2026 6 min
Market
The TSX Fell 337 Points Wednesday While Its Own Energy Sector Rose Nearly 4%
A single Iran headline pushed oil up and bond yields up at the same time, splitting the index into a clear winner and a clear group of losers underneath a headline decline of just under one percent.
Jul 9, 2026 6 min
Tax & Wealth
British Columbia's Payroll Tables Just Changed Mid-Year. Nowhere Else Did.
The CRA's July 1 update raises BC withholding to 6.14% for the rest of 2026, catching up a retroactive provincial rate change that only became law in February. Every other province's payroll tables are unchanged.
Jul 9, 2026 6 min
Market
TSX Energy Surged 4% While Mining Fell 8% on the Same Oil Shock, and the Divergence Is the Real Story
WTI's jump to $74.35 lifted Methanex, South Bow, and ARC Resources more than 4% while HudBay Minerals and Energy Fuels fell over 6%, a split that says more about currency and sub-sector mechanics than about the price of oil itself.
Jul 8, 2026 5 min
Tax & Wealth
The Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit Started This Month, and It Changes the RRIF Withdrawal Math for Retiree Clients
A new federal benefit tied to net income joined the OAS clawback on the list of thresholds a retiree's RRSP and RRIF decisions now need to clear.
Jul 8, 2026 6 min
Market
The TSX Shed 62 Points Off Its Record High While Wall Street Set New Ones
Energy and materials led Monday's pullback in Toronto while AI-driven buying pushed the Dow to a record close in New York. Tuesday's shipping attack in the Strait of Hormuz has barely moved oil, leaving Canadian energy names to open into the same soft price that pressured them Monday.
Jul 7, 2026 6 min
Tax & Wealth
The Prescribed Rate Has Now Held at Three Percent for Five Straight Quarters
The CRA confirmed the family loan rate stays at 3 percent through September, the longest stretch of stability since the 1 percent era ended in 2022. With Government of Canada yields still above 3 percent, the income splitting window has not closed.
Jul 7, 2026 6 min
Market
Gold Miners and Banks Carried the TSX Friday. Energy Barely Showed Up.
The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.
Jul 6, 2026 6 min
Economy
Canada's Inflation Just Sped Up. The Bank of Canada's Reasons to Hold Just Got Stronger Anyway.
May's 3.2% headline print looks like a problem for the July 15 decision. The core data underneath it argues the opposite.
Jul 6, 2026 6 min
Behavioural
Gold's Worst Quarter Since 2013 Just Reversed in Five Days, and the Same Bias Explains Both Moves
The metal's June capitulation and its July rebound were driven by the same behavioural pattern, just pointed in opposite directions.
Jul 6, 2026 6 min
Market
TSX Gold Miners Lead as NFP Miss Resets September Fed Odds
The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.
Jul 3, 2026 6 min
Economy
BoC July 15: The NFP Miss That Changes Nothing in Canada
Thursday's 57,000 US payrolls print sent gold above $4,100 and cut Fed hike probability for September nearly in half. The Bank of Canada's July 15 decision was already set before the data landed, and it remains set after. Understanding why is the analytical work Canadian advisors need to do this week.
Jul 3, 2026 7 min
Market
TSX Reopens Into a Split Tape: Energy Down, Rate-Sensitives Up
The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.
Jul 2, 2026 6 min
Geopolitical
Doha Talks End with Positive Progress. WTI Keeps Falling.
US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.
Jul 2, 2026 6 min
Market
WTI Just Posted Its Worst Quarter Since 2020. The TSX Barely Noticed.
Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.
Jun 30, 2026 6 min
Tax & Wealth
The Mortgage Renewal Wall Is Hitting Its Peak While Hormuz Keeps Bond Yields Elevated
Five-year fixed renewers from 2021 face the largest payment jump of the cycle, and the geopolitical risk premium is the reason the relief many expected has not arrived.
Jun 30, 2026 6 min
Showing 145–160 of 314 articles

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