WTI is up about a percent from Monday's four week low after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. The Bank of Canada's blackout for the July 15 decision started this morning, before either the attack or the market's tepid reaction to it could enter the public record.

Energy and materials led Monday's pullback in Toronto while AI-driven buying pushed the Dow to a record close in New York. Tuesday's shipping attack in the Strait of Hormuz has barely moved oil, leaving Canadian energy names to open into the same soft price that pressured them Monday.

The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

WTI crude fell for a fourth straight week to its lowest close since the Hormuz disruption began, yet the Canadian dollar strengthened over the final two sessions. Gold miners, not energy, carried the TSX toward a record.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

The 0.5% April GDP reading was the strongest in a year, broad across 14 industries. The advance for May is already back to 0.1%, and July 15 is two weeks away.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.

The composite rose 0.4% to 34,980. Energy and banks fell, mining rallied even as gold itself fell, and tech extended a separate run, all on the same session's Hormuz headlines.

WTI and gold have both round-tripped the entire Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but the Canadian dollar sits near its weakest level in the available 2026 trading record for a reason that has nothing to do with the war.

The slide pulled the TSX energy sub-index down nearly 4% in Friday trading, the sharpest one-day move since the Strait of Hormuz reopening began.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.