June's CPI print gave the Bank of Canada exactly the improvement it said it was waiting for when it held on July 15. Five days later, the sector most exposed to that decision sold off harder than any other on the index, and traders are still pricing a hike by year end, not a cut.

Brent touched $90 and WTI hit $84.59 Monday on the same headlines, but Toronto and New York read them in opposite directions: U.S. indices rallied on a semiconductor rebound ahead of this week's earnings while the TSX's precious metals weighting dragged it lower.

The alleged U.S. strike on Iran's under-construction Darkhovin nuclear facility is a different category of target than anything hit in the previous five months of this conflict, and the IAEA's finding, not Monday's oil price, is the variable that tells Canadian portfolios which of two paths this war takes next.

Five days after the July 15 Monetary Policy Report built its inflation forecast on that assumption, a weekend that pushed the conflict's confirmed U.S. death toll to 17 sent WTI to a fresh high, testing the one number the Bank said would determine whether this hold turns into something else.

A single conciliatory sentence from Tehran erased most of a four dollar intraday move in WTI crude on the same weekend the conflict's confirmed U.S. death toll rose to 17, while gold barely moved at all.

Gold's failure to rally on the biggest escalation of the US-Iran war in weeks is not a fluke. It is the clearest sign yet that oil-driven inflation fear, not geopolitical fear, is now setting the price of the safe-haven trade, and Canadian portfolios showed the same pattern in miniature on Friday.

Oil climbed to a one-month high and gold fell to an eight-month low on the same day Iran struck civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Trump dated the next round of strikes to next week. That combination, read against this morning's five desks, says more about how this war is being priced than either asset does alone.

Iran has told Yemen's Houthi allies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure. The specific target that matters is Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route, the bypass pipeline that has been the main reason oil prices have not reached crisis-level highs since the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.

A live production-risk event hit Iran's main export terminal this morning. The safe-haven trade that should have followed did not arrive, and the reason runs through four other desks.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,416.20 Wednesday, its third straight gain, as Canadian energy producers rallied on the Hormuz-driven oil surge while the index's gold miners, led by an 8.4 per cent drop in Franco-Nevada, absorbed the other side of the same trade.

Iran's Kharg Island handles 90 per cent of the country's crude exports, and this week's renewed threat to strike its oil infrastructure directly would mark a shift from transit risk to production risk, with far less strategic reserve cushion than March's disruption.

Gold fell to $4,036 Thursday as WTI climbed past $80 on the same Hormuz conflict, and the split reveals how investors sort one event into two inconsistent risk buckets.

June's inflation cooling to 3.5 percent, the number both central banks leaned on Wednesday, was driven by a ceasefire-era gasoline decline that ended July 8. WTI has already priced the difference, posting its largest single-session jump of the disruption six days later.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.79% Monday and Nasdaq fell 1.55%, then both rebounded Tuesday alongside an IBM earnings collapse and a semiconductor whipsaw. The TSX Composite moved less than a point of range either day, and its sector mix explains why.

For four months, Iran's leverage was a shipping lane. Wednesday's threat to halt energy exports from the entire region, paired with a strike that hit actual production infrastructure, changes the mechanism connecting this war to Canadian portfolios, even though the base case has not changed yet.

The Bank of Canada announces at 9:45 a.m. Eastern with markets pricing a near-certain hold. Fifteen minutes later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces the Senate to explain a committee that grew more hawkish in June even as US inflation cooled. Both are being asked to price the same barrel of oil.