Statistics Canada releases April inflation data on May 19 — the first reading after the carbon levy base-effect clears and the first test of whether the March energy shock is feeding into broader price pressures. The Bank of Canada's May 13 deliberations identified the precise conditions that would shift its rate path.

The Trump-Xi summit ended without China committing to pressure Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations are on life support. For Canadian portfolios, the geopolitical story is now about how long the oil premium persists, and what that means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 calculus.

Markets are selling off this morning not because anything went wrong in Beijing — but because nothing went spectacularly right. That distinction matters enormously for investors, and most of them will not make it.

The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.

Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade. Three converging files — Iran, Hormuz, and CUSMA — all run through the same meeting. The outcome affects Canadian energy, Canadian trade, and the Bank of Canada's rate path.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal. The channel that carries 20% of global oil remains largely closed, and Brent crude above $94 has specific portfolio implications that go beyond energy sector exposure.

A technical ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has cooled the worst-case scenario. But the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in market history, and oil prices have a floor the market has not fully priced.

A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.

The vivid imagery of a closed strait, $110 oil, and 30% higher gas prices has activated a well-documented cognitive bias. Kahneman and Tversky's availability heuristic is producing exactly the portfolio distortions advisors should expect, and address.

Canada lost 18,000 jobs and the TSX closed higher. The US added 115,000 jobs and gold hit $4,725. Both things happened today and the tension between them is what advisors need to understand before Monday morning.

Washington and Tehran are reportedly within 48 hours of agreeing on a preliminary memorandum of understanding. What it would and would not resolve, and what it means for the oil price in every Canadian portfolio.

The surprise ceasefire is now 48 hours old. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Wednesday, conditional on an immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

The TSX closed up 0.5% to roughly 33,500. Financials added another 0.5%, oil fell below $95, and Canadian energy names rallied anyway. CNQ +1%, Suncor +0.6%

The market's biggest single-day surge in months followed a ceasefire that still hasn't actually opened the Strait of Hormuz. The psychology of relief is one of the most well-documented sources of inve

A two-week ceasefire is in effect between the US and Iran. It was brokered by Pakistan hours before Trump's threatened deadline, and both sides have claimed victory. Talks begin Saturday in Islamabad,