Oil fell sixteen percent and a war stayed open, yet Canadian equities closed May at record highs. The months data reveals an index that quietly relocated its risk from the oil price to the rate path.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

Statistics Canada's Q1 GDP print confirmed this morning that Canada is technically in recession. The data is thin enough to argue either way. What it cannot avoid doing is forcing the Bank of Canada's hand at its June 10 decision.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Statistics Canada releases Q1 2026 GDP figures Friday morning. The Bank of Canada meets in 13 days. The data arrives into an environment where the BoC has explicitly left both cuts and hikes on the table -- making the read-through more consequential than a normal quarterly release.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning. The wealth management surge inside those results is a planning signal, not just a market story.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

April CPI hit 2.8% on war-premium energy costs, yet core inflation fell to a five-year low. The Iran MOU may resolve the contradiction -- but it creates a new one for the Bank of Canada ahead of June 10.

A ceasefire framework that could reopen the strait within 60 days changes the math for clients sitting on war-premium gains in energy and gold. The planning window is narrower than it looks.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Statistics Canada releases March retail trade data today. The advance estimate called for a 0.6% gain. Whatever the actual print, it lands inside a monetary policy environment where the Bank of Canada is watching consumer spending data with unusual attention.